牛津经济研究院-去全球化神话：亚洲供应链如何变化（英）-2024.docx

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1、Hinrich-IMDSUSTAINAB1.ETRADEINDEX2023DEEPDIVEhinrichfoundationNdVanUlngcuctainabglobaltradTheDeglobalizationMyth:HowAsiassupplychainsarechangingBYTHANGNGUYEN-QUOCOXFORDECONOMICSaOXFORDECONOMICSContentsEXECUTIVESUMMARY3INTRODUCTION5METHODO1.OGY6G1.OBA1.SUPP1.YCHAINSCONTINUETHEIREXPANSIONZlGlobalIGtra

2、dehasrisendespiteadifficultperiod7UNear-shoringhasnotmaterializedatthegloballevel8ASIA,SSUPP1.YCHAINSAREUNDERGOINGMAJORCHANGES3.1Chinaisdecoupling-butonlyfromtheUSandJapan1132Newsupplychain“hotspots“areemerginginAsia13MU1.TIP1.EPATHWAYSTOSUPP1.YCHAINRESI1.IENCE16CONC1.USION19ABBREVIATIONS20ENDNOTES2

3、1ABOUTOXFORDECONOMICS22ExecutivesummaryGlobalsupplychainshavecontinuedtoexpand,despitetalkofdeglobalizationandnearshoring.Regionalsourcinghasfallenacrossmostmajorworldregions,suggestingnearshoringmaynotyetbeaprevalentstrategy.Sincetheearly2010szrisinglaborcostsinChinahavecausedmanyenterprisestoexplo

4、realternativemanufacturingbasesandsourcingstrategiestomaintaintheircompetitiveness.MorerecentdisruptionssuchastheUS-Chinatradewar,Covid-19pandemic,andsanctionsonRussiahavefurtherpromptedbusinessestore-evaluatetheresilienceoftheirsupplychains.NotonlydotheydriveupthecostOftradingduetohighertariffsands

5、anctions,theyalsoaddedpolicyuncertaintiesthathinderthesmoothandefficientoperationofglobalproductionnetworks.Thesedevelopmentshaveledtovariousclaimsaboutthedemiseofglobalization,theriseofnear-shoring,andthedecouplingofChinafromthesupplychainsofWesterncompanies.Thisreportpresentsanup-to-dateoverviewof

6、globalandAsiansupplychainsandassessesthesedifferentclaimsbyfocusingondataforbilateralcross-bordertradeofIntermediateGoods(IG)zagranularclassofproductsthatmoreaccuratelyrepresentssupplychaincomponentrythanthefinalgoodsusedinmostotheranalyses.Despitetalkofdeglobalizationandnearshoring,thisstudyfindsth

7、atglobalsupplychainshavecontinuedtoexpand.Wefindthatglobalsupplychainshavecontinuedtoexpand,despitetalkofdeglobalizationandnearshoring.Intra-regionalsourcing,measuredbytheshareofIGimportsoriginatingfromcountrieswithinthesameregion,hasfallenacrossmostmajorworldregions,suggestingnearshoringmaynotyetbe

8、aprevalentstrategyatthegloballevel.TradedecouplingremainslargelyaUS-Chinaphenomenon.China,sshareofIGimportsintotheUSdroppingfrom18.5%in2018to14.1%in2022.Ontheotherhand,wefindevidencethatdecouplinghasmaterializedforChinastradewiththeUSandJapan-ChinazsshareofIGimportsintotheUSfellfrom18.5%in2018to14.1

9、%in2022.Thissharedroppedto11.4%inthefirsthalfof2023.Incontrast,ChinahasgainedimportanceasasourceofinputsshippedtoseveralGroupofSeven(G7)developedeconomies.Forexample,between2018and2022,China,sshareoftotalIGimportsincreasedfrom11.1%to15.9%inGermany,andfrom10.3%to15.1%intheUnitedKingdom.WhileChinarema

10、insthecenterofFactoryAsia,theAsia-PacificsIGtradehasbeendiversifying.AfewAsianeconomiesareemergingas“hotspots“ofIGtradegrowthinthisvolatileandincreasinglytensegeopoliticalglobalenvironment.Inparticular,VietnamandIndonesiaregistereddouble-digitgrowthinannualIGexportsduringthisperiod.High-levelcompara

11、tiveanalysisofthese“hotspot“economiesrevealsmarkedlydifferenteconomicstructuresandgeopoliticalorientations.Forexample,VietnamhasmadestridesinbecomingmoreimportantforinternationalsourcingforboththeUSandChina.ThisreflectsnotonlytheneedsofWesternmultinationalsbutalsoChineseenterpriseslookingtoexpandpro

12、ductionbaseabroad.FDIinflowsfromChinatoVietnamhavesurgedin2023andarenowthelargestofanycountrytoVietnam.Incontrast,IndiahasbecomemoreimportantforUSsupplychains,butlessimportantforChina,ssupplychains.Despiteescalatinggeopoliticaltensions,ChinahasbecomeincreasinglyreliantonTaiwanforitsinputs.Taiwanssha

13、reinChinasIGimportsincreasedfrom12.2%to14%between2018and2022,partlydrivenbyhigherdemandforadvancedsemiconductorproductsduringthepandemicthatdroveuppricesfortheseproducts.Taiwanproducesmorethan60%oftheworldssemiconductorsandmorethan90%ofthemostadvancedones.ThediversityofeconomicstructuresandUS-Chinao

14、rientationsacrossthese“hotspot“economiessuggeststhatthereismorethanonewinningstrategytonavigatethechanginglandscapeofglobalsupplychains.IntroductionCompaniesareseekingtoreduceriskintheirsupplychainconfigurationbydiversifyingtheirsupplierbases,establishingmoreefficientsupplychainfootprints,exploringa

15、lternativeproductionhubstoenhancesupplychainvisibilityandagility.Theshiftingdynamicsofsupplychains,especiallyinAsia,areanimportantandtopicalissuefortheglobaleconomy.Companysourcingstrategieshavefar-reachingimplications,impactingnotonlytheefficiencyofbusinessesbutalsoinfluencingtradedynamics,economic

16、growth,andcompetitivenesstrendsonaglobalscale.Duringthe1990s,whentheprocessOfglobalizationacceleratedandproductionprocessesbecameincreasinglyfragmentedacrosscountries,ChinasriseasthezFactoryoftheWorldzwassupportedbyitscheapandplentifulsupplyoflabor.Aswageshaveincreasedinrecentyears,however,Chinesefirmshaveincreasingly