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1、PaUO1.nnValnsoosQ.2-qndPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10729ClimateChangeAdaptationWhatDoestheEvidenceSay?PZOfnValnsoosQ.2-qndJonahRexerSiddharthSharmaworldBankgroupSouthAsiaRegionOfficeoftheChiefEconomistMarch2024Poi.icyRESEARCHWorkingPaper10729AbstractAdaPtingtoclimatechangeisanincreasinglyurgentpolicyp

2、riorityinlower-andmiddle-incomecountries.Thissystematicreviewsummarizesthecurrentstateoftheliteratureonadaptationtoclimatechange,andconductsaquantitativemcta-analysisoftheeffectivenessofclimateadaptation.ThCmcta-analysisrevealsthatObSCrVCdadaptationsoffset46percentofclimatelossesonaverage,withfirmsu

3、singmoreeffectiveadaptationstrategicsthanhouseholdsandfarmers.Thereviewidentifiesseveralkeylessons.First,purelyprivateadaptationstoclimateshockstendtobelesseffectivethanthosefrompublicinfrastructureandservices,althoughneitherbyitselfisgenerallysufficienttofullyoffsettheeffectsofclimatechange.Second,

4、someadaptationsmayreduceclimatelossesinthepresent,butinthelong-run,households,firms,andfarmersmightbebcttcr-sencdbyreducingtheirclimateexposure.Third,theliteraturetendstofocusonadaptationbyhouseholdsandfarmers,neglectingfirms.Finally,productivitylossesfromclimateshocksmaybeoffsetifcapitalandlaborcan

5、adjustacrosssectorsandlocations,butconstraintsonthesereallocationshavenotbeensufficientlystudied.ThispaperisaproductoftheOfficeoftheChiefEconomist,SouthAsiaRegion.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.Pol

6、icyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebatTheauthorsmaybecontactedatssharmalworldbank.organdjrexerworldbank.org.TIjcPoiityReseork.hiprogresstoencouragetbcexcbanofideasaboutdetvfofimentissues.Anoecthfeoftheseriesisto*/tbtfindingoutquickfy,evNifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepapersca

7、nythenawtsoftbeauthorsandshouldbecited(ccorditty.Thefinding,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisp(rareentirrlyt!wse可theauthors.TheydonotnecrssarilyrrprvstrnttheviewsoftheInleniationalbankforReconstructionandDevtiopMenl/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganisations,orthoseoftheVlxecuihvDincforsoflb

8、eWorldBankortheavmmentstheyrepresent.ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeamClimatechangeadaptation:Whatdoestheevidencesay?JonahRexer*1SiddharthSharma1Keywords:Climatechangeadaptation,Meta-analysis,SouthAsia,Technologyadoption,Publicgoods,Reallocation,Transfers,Diversification.JE1.codes,.Q50,Q54,Q55,Q561.

9、IntroductionClimatechangeisleadingtohighersurfacetemperatures,acidifyingoceans,andarisingglobalmeansealevel.Theconsensusestimateisthattheaverageglobalsurfacetemperaturehasincreasedby0.85degreeCelsiussincetheindustrialrevolution,withestimatesoffutureincreaserangingfrom0.9to5.4degreesCelsiusbytheendof

10、thiscentury(HsiangandKopp2018,IPCC2014).Withlong-termprecipitationpatternschangingincomplexways,somepartsoftheworldareexpectedtogetdrier,whileothersgetwetter(HsiangandKopp2018).Droughtsareexpectedtobecomemorecommonindrierpartsoftheworld(Collinsetal.2014).Climatechangeisalsoincreasingthefrequencyandi

11、ntensityofextremeweatherevents.Forinstance,theprevalenceofintensetropicalcyclonesisexpectedtoincrease(Kossinetal.2017).Thesechangesintheearth,sclimateareprojectedtoreduceaggregateeconomicoutputbecauseoftheiradverseeffectsonagriculturalyields,industrialoutput,laborsupply,productivity,andhumancapital,

12、amongothermechanisms(Auffhammer2018,CarletonandHsiang2016,Dell,Jones,andOlken2014,InternationalMonetaryFund2020).RecenteconometricstudiessuggestthatwarminghasasizableadverseimpactonGDP(Burke,Hsiang,andMiguel2015,Dell,Jones,andOlken2012,Hsiang2010).Basedonareviewofsuchstudies,CarletonandHsiang(2016)e

13、stimatethatfuturewarmingwillreducetheglobalGDPgrowthrateby0.28percentagepointsperyearduringthecomingcentury.SuchestimatesofaggregateGDPimpactsaresubjecttouncertaintyaboutthefuturepathofclimatechange.However,whentheeconomicimpactsofbothclimatetrends(suchasrisingtemperatures)andclimate-change-relatede

14、xtremeeventrisks(suchasmorefrequentcyclones)aretakenintoaccount,evenmoderatefutureclimatechangescenariosimplysizableeffectsonGDP(Fernando,1.iu,andMcKibbin2021).Majorstormshavesizablenegativeimpactsonsucheconomicoutcomesasper-capitaincomeandoutput(Anttila-HughesandHsiang2013,Cachon,Gallino,andOlivare

15、s2012,Nordhaus2010,Yang2008).Stormsalsodamageproductiveassets:inIndia,forexample,theaveragecyclonedestroys2.2percentofafirmsfixedassets(Pcllietal.2023).Cyclonesanddroughtsalsoincreaseinfantmortalityandworsenotherhealthoutcomes(Anttila-HughesandHsiang2013,CurrieandRossin-Slater2013,Kudamatsu2016,Schmitt,Graham,andWhite2016).Asaresult,extremeweathereventsnotonlyreduceoutputintheshortrun,butalsoharmlong-runeconomicgrowth:a90th-percentilecycloneeventisestimatedtoreduceper-capitaincomesby7.4percenttwodecadeslater(HsiangandJina2014).Theeconomicimpactsofclimatetrends,suchasrisingtemperatu