布鲁盖尔研究所-将社会投资和改革的影响纳入欧盟新的财政框架（英）-2024.3.docx

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1、11ntroductionTheupdatetotheEuropeanUnion,sfiscalrulesagreedinFebruary2024willchangefundamentallytheplanningandsurveillanceofthefiscalpoliciesofEUcountriesAgreementonthenewrulesis,attimeofwriting,stillsubjecttoratificationbytheCounciloftheEUandtheEuropeanParliament;seeCounciloftheEUpressreleaseof10Fe

2、bruary2024(updated21February),Tconomicgovernancereview:CouncilandParliamentstrikedealonreformoffiscalrules,releases/2024/02/1(Vecotomiuqovernancejeviewgiinciband-DarIiamentSmkedeal-on-refo11-of-fiscal-rules/.Underthenewframework,theEuropeanCommissionwillissuetoEUcountriesfour-to-sevenyearreferencetr

3、ajectoriesintendedtoshowhowtheyshouldbringtheirspendingGovernmentexpenditurenetofinterestspending,cyclicalunemploymentspending,discretionrevenuemeasures,EU-fundednationalspending,co-financingofEUprogrammesandone-offs.undercontrol-orintechnicalterms,ensuringtheirpublicdebtsareonaplausiblydownwardpath

4、(orremainingbelow60percentofGDP),asdeterminedbyacountry-specificdebtsustainabilityanalysis(DSA)augmentedbynumericalsafeguardsSeeAnnex1forthefournumericalsafeguardrequirements.EUcountrieswillsubsequentlysubmitmedium-termfiscal-structuralplans(MTFSPs),whichtheCommissionwillevaluate.Iftheseincluderefor

5、msandpublicinvestmentthatmeetcertaincriteria-suchasbeinggrowth-enhancingandsupportiveoffiscalsustainability,andraisinginvestmentoverthemediumterm-theywouldjustifyanextensionoftheadjustmentperiodfromfourtosevenyears.Totheextentthattheseplansareexecutedandinfluenceproductivitygrowth,thecapitalstockand

6、laboursupply,theywouldalsoimpactthefuturedebtpath.ThisP如erproposesanapproachforquantifyingthisimpactandintegratingitintothenewframework,takingintoaccountuncertaintyabouttheimplementationofreformsandtheireconomiceffects.Akeycomponentofthisapproachisthedevelopmentofaquantitativemethodologythatquantifi

7、esthereformandinvestmentsimpacts.Developingsuchamethodologyisimportantfortworeasons.First,countriesthatsucceedinobtaininganextensionoftheadjustmentperiodwilllikelyarguethattheirproposedreformsandinvestmentsjustifyless-stringentadjustmentthanenvisagedintheCommissionsreferencetrajectory(whichprecedest

8、heMTFSPs,andhencedoesnottakeintoaccountnewreforms),Thisraisesthequestionofhowthetrade-offbetweenpromisedreforms/investmentandfiscaladjustmentshouldbequantified.Second,whilethereferencetrajectoriesdonottakeintoaccounttheimpactofproposedreforms,theydotrytotakeintoaccounttheimpactofrecentreforms.Howeve

9、r,someofthisimpactmaynotyetbeobservable-because,forexample,reformshaveonlyjustbeenadopted-raisingmuchthesamemethodologicalproblemsasassessingtheimpactofpromisedreforms.Wepayparticularattentiontosocialinvestments,definedasreformsandincreasesinpublicspendingthatpursuesocialobjectivesForexample,increas

10、edlabour-marketparticipation,accesstoqualityeducationandtraining,reductionandpreventionofpovertyrisks.andarealsoexpectedtoraiseeconomicgrowth.Thegrowth-enhancingeffectcouldmaterialisethroughtheimpactofsocialinvestmentsonhumancapitalandproductivity,includingviastrongerinnovativecapacityandabsorptiono

11、fnewtechnologies,and/orlaboursupply.Forexample,investmentsinchildcarecanraisetheIaboUrS叩ply;improvementsineducationandtrainingcanboostproductivityandgrowth;andreformsandinvestmentsinpublicemploymentservicescanimprovejobmatching,therebyincreasingoutput.However,notallincreasesinsocialoreducationalspen

12、dingaregoodforgrowth.Althoughsuchincreasesmightbevaluable,wewouldnotregardthemassocialinvestments.Inmanycases,itisdiffculttodecideexantewhethersocialspendingshouldqualifyassocialinvestment.Butforthepurposesofreflectingtheimpactofsocialspendingonthedebtsustainabilityanalyses,noex-anteclassificationis

13、necessary.Increasesinsocialspendingthatareproposedaspartofaninvestmentorreformplanwouldbeevaluatedfortheirgrowthimpacts,justlikeanyotherreformandinvestmentproposal.ThequestionofWhethersocialspendingqualifiesassocialinvestmentcanbeansweredexpost,basedonthisevaluationAnex-antedefinitionofsocialinvestm

14、entwouldberequired,however,tocomparesocialinvestmentsacrosscountriesandtoundertakeresearchontheimpactofinvestmentslabelledassocial.Againstthisbackground,wefocusonfourissues.First,wesummarisetheincentivesforreformsandinvestmentsinthenewfiscalframeworkandevaluatetheirlikelyeffectiveness.Second,werevie

15、wthecurrentpracticeofincorporatingreformandinvestmentimpactsintheDSA.Third,weprovidethreequantitativeexamplesofsocialinvestmentsandreformsandevaluatetheirimpactsonfiscaladjustmentneedsbyinsertingtheirexpectedgrowtheffectsintotheDSA;ourexamplesare:（八）achildcarepolicytoboostlaboursupply,(b)apolicytoin

16、creasethequalityofeducation,and(c)alabourmarketpolicyaimedatincreasingtheshareofhigh-skilledworkers.Finally,werecommendaconservative叩PrOaChtoincorporatingtheimpactsofplannedreformsandinvestmentsintothegrowthtrajectoriesunderpinningDSAswithinthenewfiscalgovernanceframeworkoftheEU,andwediscussoptionsforagovernancestructure.2IncentivesforreformsandinvestmentsintheEU,snewfiscalframeworkUnderthenewfiscalframeworkcentredoncountry-specificdebtsustainabilityanalysis(D