彼得森经济研究所-为清洁能源创新体系提供动力（英）-2024.3.docx

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1、就PIIEPETERSONINS甯UTEFORINTERNATIONA1.FCONOMICS24-5PoweringthecleanenergyinnovationsystemReinhildeVeugelersMarch2024ABSTRACTReinhildeVeugelers1nonresidentseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,isafullprofessorinthedeportmentofmanagement,strategyandinnovationatKU1.euveninBelgium.S

2、heisalsoaseniorfellowatBnjegel.Thispaperfocusesontheinnovationangleingreenindustrialpolicydesign.Theinnovationsystem,deliveringnewandimprovedtechnologysolutionsforthecleanenergytransition,canbethecornerstoneofasuccessfultransitionthatreconcilesdecarbonization,competitivevaluecreationandjobs,andstrat

3、egicautonomyonaglobalscale.This,however,requirestheinnovationsystemtobeproperlydirected.Thispaperfirstlaysouttheprinciplesofapolicydesignthatproperlysteerstheinnovationsystem.Itthendocumentsthecurrentperformanceoncleanenergyinnovationsandcleanenergypolicymakingglobally,withfocusontheInflationReducti

4、onAct(IRA)andtheNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA)trendsincleantechpolicymakingintheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion,respectively.Theevidenceshowsthattheinnovationsystemisnotatfullpotentialandthereisstillampleroomtoimprovethecurrentcleanenergypolicymakingandinternationalpolicycoordination.JE1.codes:031,038,Q55Ke

5、ywords:climatechange,cleantech,innovation,greeninnovationpolicy,strategicautonomyNote:ThispaperwaspreparedforaconferenceonMoCrQeCQnQmiCImQlicQtionsOfClimQteACtiononJune5-6,2023,atthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics(PIIE).1750MassachusettsAveshington,DC20+1.202.328.9000INTR0DUC110NShiftinge

6、conomiesfromfossilfuel-basedtogreenenergyrepresentsoneofthemostsignificantsocioeconomictransformationsinhistory.Thegreentransformationbringssocioeconomicopportunitiesandchallenges.Whilephasingoutfossilfuel-basedproducts,activities,andjobs,newgreenproducts,activities,andjobsarebeingcreated.Cleanenerg

7、yiskeytofosteringadeepdecarbonizationprocess.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatifcountriesworldwidefullyimplementtheirannouncedenergyandclimate2030pledges,theglobalmarketforkeymass-manufacturedcleanenergytechnologieswillhavetripledinsize.Cleanenergymanufacturingjobswouldmorethandoublefro

8、m6milliontodaytonearly14millionby2030(IEA2023a).Recognizingtheopportunitiesandchallengesofthetransitionfromdirtytocleanenergy,allmajoreconomieshaveventuredintocleanenergyindustrialpolicyandarecompetingfortheirshareoftheglobaleconomicopportunitiesfromcleanenergy,reconcilingtheirdecarbonizationandsoci

9、oeconomictransformationobjectives.)TheCOVID-19outbreakdramaticallyexposedeconomiestotheirvulnerabilities,introducingacallforpoliciesensuringtheresilienceandsecurityofsupplyofinputsconsideredstrategic.ThewarinUkraineandtheweaponizationuofRussiangasandChinesemineralsexacerbatedconcernsaboutsupplysecur

10、ity,particularlyforenergy,especiallyinEurope.Forexample,inMarch2020thenewlyestablishedEuropeanCommissionunderUrsulavonder1.eyenzwithclimategoalsfirmlyanchoredinitsGreenDealandFitfor55package,presenteditsNewIndustrialStrategyforEurope,centeredaroundthetwinningofitsgreenanddigitaltransitions.Chinaslat

11、estFive-Year-Plan(2021-25)hascleanenergyhighonitsradar.AndtheUnitedStateszwithitsInflationReductionAct(IRA)adoptedinAugust2022,introducedamassivepackageofsupportfordeantechtechnologydeployment.TheEuropeanUnioninMay2022launcheditsREPowerEUplantotransitionfastertocleanenergy,diversifyitsenergysupplies

12、,andsaveenergytoimproveitsstrategicautonomyMinenergy.TheUSIRAisacleararticulationofthis,particularlyitslocalcontentrequirementstipulations,whichoutlinedEurope,sresponseinMarch2023withitsNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA).Whiletheconceptofopenstrategicautonomyz,wasalreadypresentedinthe2020NewIndustrialStrateg

13、yforEurope,thishadmostlyChinaasasystemicrivalMontheradar(EC2020).TheNZIAtakesitsstrategicautonomyincleanenergyafewstepsfurther,reactingtothedeepenedgeopoliticalrisks.Allmajoreconomiesarenowcombiningtheirclimateandcleanenergyindustrialpolicieswitheffortstoensurethesecurityofenergysupplyandstrategicau

14、tonomyincleanenergyvaluechains.Intheabsenceofglobalpolicycoordination,thissetsinmotionatrainofmutuallyreinforcingreactivepressurestofurtherthestrategicautonomyangleincountries1cleanenergyindustrialpolicies?Countriesarestillfiguringouthowtoreconcilethemultidimensionalobjectivesofagreenindustrialpolic

15、y,particularlywhenthesedimensionscounteracteachother.Whatarethebestwaystocombinedecarbonizationwitheconomicgrowth,jobs,andworldcompetitiveness,andallthiswithresilienceandsecurityofsupply?Whatisthesocioeconomicallybestwaytoachievedecarbonizationandresilience?Howandhowfartogoinmovingtowardsupplyresili

16、enceandsecurity,andwhatarethecostsinmovingawayfromdecarbonizationandeconomicefficiency?Howfartomoveawayfromahorizontalpolicyapproachshapingframeworkconditionstoensureopenmarkets,suchasastrongcompetitionpolicyandopentrade?Howfartogotowardaverticalapproachtopickingtechnologiesandprojectsdeemedstrategictosecuresupply?Thispaperfocusesontheinnovationangleingreenindustrialpolicydesign.Thispaperfocusesoninnovationsforc