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1、INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDGlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsVuChau,MarinaConesaMartinez,TaehoonKim,JohnSprayWP/24/62IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessar

2、ilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024MARWP/24/622024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperResearchandWesternHemisphereDepartmentsGlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsPreparedbyVuChau,MarinaConesaMartinez,TaehoonKim,andJohnSpray*AuthorizedfordistributionbyN

3、an1.iandCeydaOnerMarch2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Westudytheinflationar

4、yimpactsofpandemiclockdownshocksandfiscalandmonetarystimulusduring2020-2022usinganovelharmonizeddatasetofsectoralproducerpriceinflationandinput-outputlinkagesformorethan1000sectorsin53countries.TheinflationaryimpactofshocksisidentifiedviaaBartikshift-sharedesign,wheresharesreflecttheheterogeneoussec

5、toralexposuretoshocksandarederivedfromamacroeconomicmodelofinternationalproductionnetwork.Wefindthatpandemiclockdowns,andsubsequentreopeningpolicies,werethemostdominantdriverofglobalinflationinthisperiod,especiallythroughtheirimpactonaggregatedemand.Weprovideadecompositionoflockdownshockbysources,an

6、dfindthatbetween20-30percentofthedemandeffectofIockdownZreopeningisduetospilloverfromabroad.Finally,whilefiscalandmonetarypoliciesplayedanimportantroleinpreventingdeflationin2020,theireffectsdiminishedintherecoveryyears.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Chau,V.,ConesaMartinez,M.,Kim,T.,&Spray,J.(2024).GlobalValue

7、ChainsandInflationDynamics.IMFWorkingPapers,2024/62JE1.ClassificationNumbers:E31；F10；F41Keywords:Inflation;globalvaluechains;network;pandemic;spillovers.AuthorsE-MailAddress:VChaUimf.ora:mconesamartinezimf.orci;tkimimf.orci;isoravimf.ora.AllauthorsareaffiliatedwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.Thevie

8、wsinthispaperarepersonalviewsoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFManagement.WethankChrisPapageorgiou,CeydaOner,PrachiMishra,RodrigoValdes,FilizUnsal,AdrianPeralta-Alva,RuiMano,Niels-JakobHansen,YanCarriere-Swallow,AlasdairStt,AbdoulWane.CianRuane,MarcoArena,a

9、ndparcipantsattheIMFAPD1WHD.RESDMSeminarSeriesforthoughtfulcommentsandfeedback.WORKINGPAPERSGlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsPreparedbyVuChau,MarinaConesaMartinez,TaehoonKim,JohnSpray1IntroductionTheriseofglobalin11ationaftertheCOVID_19pandemiccaughttheworldbysurpriseandpushedinflationtoitshighe

10、stlevelsindecades.Whiletraditionaldriversofinflation,suchasloosefiscalandmonetarypolicies,havecontinuedtobecitedasthecausesofhighinflation,therecentinflationaryperiodhasalsocalledintoquestionsthevulnerabilitiesoftheglobalvaluechains（GVCs）todisruptions（causedbylockdowns,disasters,andwars）anditsrolein

11、transmittingshocksacrosscountries.Toproperlydrawlessonsfromthisinflationaryperiodandensurecostlymistakesarenotrepeatedinthefuture,itisimportantthentoknowtherelativeimportanceofdifferentinflationdrivers.Inthispaper,weprovideanovelharmonizeddatasetofsectoralproducerprice,mergedwithinput-outputlinkages

12、andshocks,formorethan100Osectorsin53countries,andaframeworktoidentifyinflationaryimpactofdifferentin11ationdriversusingthesectoraldata.Identifyingtheinflationaryimpactofshocksisempiricallychallenging.First,aggregateconsumerpriceindicesarefunctionsofmanyconcurrentshocks-demandandsupply,domesticandfor

13、eignspillovers-andrelyingonlyonthisdatawouldnotprovidesufficientstatisticalpowerforidentification.ThisisevidentintheUSinflationdebate,wheredifferentpolicymakersandscholarsattributethehighinflationratetodifferentdrivers.Second,thesameshockcanappeartobebothausupplyshock”andaudemandshock,jthataffectinf

14、lationinopposingways.1.ockdownpoliciescanbeanegativesupplyshockthatincreasesthepricelevelaslimitedproductiondepletesinventoriesandmakesgoodsscarce.Atthesametime,lockdownscanbethoughtofanegativedemandshockthatdepressesprices,asworkersreceivelowerincomeanddemandlessgoodsandservices.Furthermore,lockdow

15、nscanbepredominantlyademandshockforonecountryandasupplyshockforanother,manifestingthroughhigherimportedinputprices.Thus,studyingtheinflationaryimpactofpandemiclockdownrequirestakingaholistic,structuredviewofhowlockdowncanaffecttheunitsofobservationofinterest.Inthispaper,wetrytoovercometheaforementio

16、nedempiricalchallengesandstudythedriversofglobalinflationusingasetofBartik（1991）shift-shareinstrumentsderivedfromageneralequilibriummodelwithinternationalproductionnetwork.Ourempiricalworkhastwocomponents.First,wecollectandharmonizePPIinflationdataforacross-sectionof1134internationalproductionsectorsduringtheperiod20202022,ensuringconsistencywithinternationalinput-outputdataandotherrelevantdatasets.Second,wecons