《预测与决策技术应用》时间序列分析报告地报告材料：美国AcmeTool公司1994-2000年销售额记录簿.docx

《《预测与决策技术应用》时间序列分析报告地报告材料：美国AcmeTool公司1994-2000年销售额记录簿.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《《预测与决策技术应用》时间序列分析报告地报告材料：美国AcmeTool公司1994-2000年销售额记录簿.docx（49页珍藏版）》请在第壹文秘上搜索。

1、美国ACmeT9公司1994-2。年销售额记录二3年份季度时期/t销售额/XSl(=0.3)S2(a=0.3)abY/a=0.3绝对误差误差平方-1O-433.3433.3433.30.0-2300.03(X).0300.00.03200.0200.0200.00.04366.7366.7366.70.0199411UU433.3439.3467.36.U433.360.74444.4Z235U315.U3U4.3325.54.5300.03U.U2.u33250215.0204.5225.54.5200.050.02500.04443/0./369.7383.73.U3bb.733.3111

2、1.1199515450452.3443.2461.43.9473.323.3544.42635U必.3310.8340.26.3330.020.0400.03I200，Iuqzuo.3214.71.230.03u.u9(J().()4830()353.7364.9342.5-4.8386.786.77511.119961y35U421.643b.8406.5-6.5465.3115.313301.82IO200287.9303.9271.8-6.9346.5146.521462.331115()192.4202.1182.6-4.2210.506.54422.3412400367.6365.

3、7369.50.8337.762.33885.419971998113550460.1443.8476.57.0400.0150.022490.0214350306.5304.7308.30.8264.985.17242.0315250209.6204.4214.92.3178.471.65126.6416550422.3382.7461.917.0370.3179.732304.11999117550487.1456.8517.413.0483.566.54417.8218400334.5313.6355.49.0309.190.98267.4319350251.8218.6284.914.

4、2217.2132.817642.5420600475.6410.5540.727.9478.9121.114661.2121750566.0489.5642.432.8530.4219.648210.8222500384.2334.8433.621.2364.4.618386.3323400296.2241.9350.623.3299.1100.910175.0424650527.9445.8610.135.2568.681.46633.7200012585()651.2538.()764.348.5675.2174.830565.1226600448.9369.0528.834.2454.

5、7145.321106.6327450342.4272.。412.730.1373.970.13796.6428700579.5485.9673.240.1645.354.72991.62001Yj1/-)129预测12.均方差ZJUj63.0331442.8432713.3平均误爰-94.211392.9图1-2:原美国ACmeToOI公司19942000年销售额记录表数据图与“a=0.3的二次指数平滑法预测数据趋势图。【预测】.用二次指数平滑法对该公司2001年1、2季度的销售额进行预测，其中a=03的时候,得到预测值分别是：2001年1季度为924.2;2001年2季度为649.2。美国

6、ACmeT。1公司1994-2000年销售额记录，一。$年份季度时期/t销售额/XSl(a=0.5)S2(a=0.5)abY(a=0.5)绝对误差误差平方-10-433.3433.3433.30.0-2300.0300.0300.00.03200.0200.0200.0.004366.7366.7366.70.0199411500466.7450.0333716.7433.366.74444.422350325.0312.55237.12.5300.050.02500.033250225.0212.55391.12.5200.050.02500.044400383.3375.07462.8.3

7、366.733.31111.1199515450458.3454.25350.4.2500.050.02500.026350337.5325.00212.12.5350.00.00.037200212.5212.5J325.O0.0250.050.02500.048300341.7358.3379.2-16.7400.0100.0100.0199619350404.2429.2240.6-25.0466.7116.713611.1210200268.8296.9165.6-28.1362.5162.526406.3311150181.3.9377.1-15.6212.562.53906.341

8、2400370.8364.6501.021S6.3308.391.78402.81997113550477.1453.1Jl6225.24.0354.2.838350.7214350309.4303.16.3212.5137.518906.33Ij25021j.6206.39.4Ij(Ja)1()0.()1(XXX).00416550460.4412.53U8.347.9383.3166.727777.8117550513.5483.33j43.830.2525.025.0625.01998218400354.7328.95321.25.8321.978.16103.5319350282.82

9、44.51589.38.3234.4115.613369.1420600530.2471.41706.58.9556.343.81914.1121750631.8557.60476.74.2574.0176.030990.71999222500427.3378.16389.P49.2406.393.88789.1323400341.4293.0649.548.4359.440.61650.4424650590.1530.7832.659.4647.92.14.3125850740.9649.2581.491.7780.269.84870.92000226600513.7445.9447.167

10、.8525.874.25508.4327450395.7344.3702.251.4438.311.7137.32001第700645.1587.9预测57.28.9均78.4方差3QO74QA平均477.68819.9I误差趋势图图1-1：原美国ACmeToOl公司19942000年销售额记录表数据图。图1-3:原美国ACmeToOI公司19942000年销售额记录表数据图与“a=0.5的二次指数平滑法预测数据趋势图。【预测】.用二次指数平滑法对该公司2001年1、2季度的销售额进行预测，其中a=05的时候，得到预测值分别是：2001年1季度为924.2;2001年2季度为649.2。美国ACmeT向公司1994-2。年销售额记录二:年份季度时期彳/t肖售额/XSl(a=0.7)S2(a=0.7)abY(a=0.7)绝对误差误差平方-10-433.3433.3433.30.0一2300.0300.0300.00.03200.0200.0200.00.04366.7366.7366.70.0199411500480.0466.0494.032.7433.366.74444.42