国家经济和社会研究所-英国2021年秋季经济展望：复苏：停滞而非飙升（英）-2021-55正式版.docx

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1、NationalInstitute of Economic and Social ResearchNationalInstituteUKEconomicOutlookRecovery:stallingnotsoaringNationalInstituteUKEconomicOutlook-Autumn2021ISSN2753-9350NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch,2021NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchStLondonSW1P3HET:+44(0)20722

2、27665E:enquiriesniesr.ac.ukW:niesr.ac.ukRegisteredcharityno.306083NATIONALINSTITUTEOFECONOMICANDSOCIALRESEARCHOFFICERSOFTHEINSTITUTEPRESIDENTSIRPAULTUCKERcouncilOfmanagementPROFESSORNICHOLASCRAFTSCBE(CHAIR)TeraAllasCBEStephenKingAlexBakerKeithMackrellJennyBatesNevilleManuelProfessorPhillipBrownProfe

3、ssorJillRuberyNeilGaskellRomeshVaitilingamMBEProfessorSirDavidGreenawayDIRECTORPROFESSORJAGJITS.CHADHAOBE2DeanTrenchStreet,SmithSquareLondon,SW1P3HECARDIFFUNIVERSITYPrifyscolOfRDW印 UniversityAdarSmTheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchisanindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevision

4、ofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocialforcesthataffectpeopleslives,andthewaysinwhichpolicycanbringaboutchange.AndthisremainscentraltoNIESR,sethos.Wecontinuetoapplyourexpertiseinbothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocialissuesto

5、currentdebatesandtoinfluencepolicy.TheInstituteisindependentofallpartypoliticalinterests.EconomicandSocialResearchCouncilContentsForeword3NationalInstituteUKEconomicOutlook-Autumn202141UKEconomicOutlook:ShortagesandfiscaltighteningthreateneconomicrecoveryfromCovid-196Economicbackgroundandoverviewoft

6、heforecast6Economicactivity8BoxA:TheEuropeanUnionsCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism:levellingtheEUcarbonplayingfield11Households13BoxB:FurloughandhouseholdfinancialdistressduringtheCovid-19pandemic-insightsforfuturelockdowns14BoxC:Wagepressures:aperspectivefromonlinejobadvertisements17Firms20Trade22Fi

7、scalpolicy23Inflationandmonetarypolicy25BoxD:Thenewemploymenttax292UKRegionalOutlook:Autumn202133RegionalOutlook34GVA,(un)employmentandlabourproductivity35Skillsandlabour-marketinterventions35Reducingregionaldisparities38HouseholdincomesacrosstheUK,sdevolvednationsandEngIand1Sregions39BoxE:Distribut

8、ionalimpactsofCovid-19andpotentialforpolicyintervention4145AppendixForeword:RipitupandstartagainTheBritisheconomysrelativedeclinehasbeenhighlightedbyasequenceofeventsthatwillbeseenashistoricallyimportant.ThefinancialcrisislaidtorestournotionthatitwassufficienttobuildanationalplanonaburgeoningCityofL

9、ondon.ThereferendumonBrexittoldusthatopennesstoEuropeantradeandmigrationalonedidnotallowoureconomicstructurestodeliversustainedincreasesinprosperityacrossthecountry.Lifeunderthepandemichasfurtherexposedtheneedtoredevelopourpublicprovisionofhealth,socialcareandtransportinfrastructure,aswellasareconsi

10、derationoftherevenuestofinancethat.Whileitisnotthedutyofthestatetoreplaceprivatesectoractivityandimpingeonitsplansundulywithtaxes,thestate(localandnational)doeshavetheobligationtosupportandenabletheprivatesectortogeneratejobsandprosperityacrossthenation,aswellasprovidepublicgoods.Inthoseobligationsi

11、thasrepeatedlyfailed.Aswereachtheendof2021,weareemergingfromtheCovid-19cloud,albeitgingerly.However,itisbynomeanscertainthatwewillavoidreturningtosomerestrictionsonourmobility;certainly,thethreatthatwemightdosowillntinuetoaffecthouseholdandbusinessconfidence.Economicactivityisfacingapersistentnegati

12、vesupplyshock,whichmeansthatwecannotproduceallthegoodsandserviceswewouldwantatprevailingprices.Alongsidethat,thereismuchpent-updemandassignalledbythestockofhouseholdsavings.Twofundamentaljudgementsintheshortrunarehowquicklythesedisruptionstodomesticandglobalsupplysortthemselvesoutandhowquicklyhouseh

13、oldsreturntotheirmorenormalpropensitiestosave.IfwethinkthedisruptionswillironoutbyChristmasandconsumerswillquicklyrundowntheirsavings,wemightwellthinkthatourproblemsarebehindus.However,ifwethinkthatdisruptionswillpersistandfirmsandhouseholdswillcontinuetoactwithcaution,wemaybefacedwitheconomicstagna

14、tion.AsthisOutlookmakesclear,webelievethatshortrunsupplyproblemsfacedbytheUKwillpersistandarelikelytobeexacerbatedbyBrexit.ThisisbecauseourexitfromtheEuropeanUnionhasactedtoreducethepooloflabour,contributedtolowerlevelsoffirminvestmentthanmightotherwisehavebeenthecase,andledtosomecontractioninthesiz

15、eofourtradedsector.Ofcoursethesqueezeonlesswell-offhouseholdsisnowwelloveradecadeoldlong,predatingBrexit,andhasprimarilyresultedfromaninabilitytoaddressourproductivityshortfall,whichisourlongtermsupplyconstraint.Inthissensedemandandsupplyaremeeteachotheratthesamepointwherelowskillsandlowwagesareasso

16、ciatedwithlowlevelsofdemandandconstrainedsupply.Ourproblemsarenotinsurmountablebutpromptandconsistentinterventionsbythestatetosupporttraining,labourmobility,housebuildingmayacttoalleviatesomeofthecostsofadjustmenttothathighwage-highskilleconomyforwhichweyearn.Structurally,wethinktherearelargeshortfallsinthecapitalstock-human,physicalan