布鲁金斯学会-2022财年美国军队:海军(英)-38正式版.docx
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1、NOVEMBER2021U.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022NavyMarkF.CancianThispaperispartofU.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022.ThereisbipartisansupporttoexpandtheNavy,butlimitedbudgetsandearlyretirements-i4divcstingtoinvcsf,一makeachievingthatgoaldifficult.TheBidcnadministrationsemergingfleetplanincorporatessmallershipsandlarge
2、numbersofunmannedsystems,asproposedbymanystrategists,buthighcosts,productionlimitations,andcongressionaloppositionmaypreventfullimplementation.KEYTAKEAWAYSInFY2022,fleetsizestaysaboutthesame,at296ships.Previouslyorderedshipsarriveinlargenumbers,buttheNavyretires15ships,10early.Navyactive-dutypersonn
3、eldecreaseby1,600to346,200.,ShipnumbersmattertotheNavybecauseofhighday-to-daydemandsforitsforcesforcrisisresponse,alliedandpartnerengagement,conventionaldeterrence,andongoingregionalconflicts.Thefuturefleetarchitecture-itssizeandcomposition-remainsaworkinprogress.TheTrumpadministrations355-shipgoalw
4、asdeemedinfeasiblebecauseofitshighcostandoutmodedoperationalconcepts.Attheendofitsterm,theTrumpadministrationarticulatedanewvisionincorporatingunmannedsystemsanddistributedcapabilities.TheBidenadministrationpublishedasimilararchitecture,butsmallerandwithrangesforshipnumbers.Costisaproblemwithallofth
5、esenotionalarchitecturesbecausetheyrequirelargefundingincreaseswhichmaynotoccur.Nevertheless,someinsightsareemerging:Carriers:Recentforcestructureproposalshaveimpliedareductioninthenumberofcarriers.However,contractualcommitmentsandpoliticalconstraintsmayhavelockedtheNavyintothepresentcarrierforcefor
6、manyyearsregardlessofstrategicconsiderations.Smallcarriersseemtoberecedingintothebackgroundonceagain.CSIS,LargeSurfaceCombatants:Futurearchitecturesenvisiondeepcutstothisfleet,implyingproductioncutbacksandmanyearlyretirements.However,industrialbaseandstrategicconcernsaboutshrinkingfleetsizewillclash
7、withthenewgoals.CFNTFRFURSTRATFGlcINTERNATIONALSTUDIES SmallSurfaceCombatants:Allthefuturefleetarchitecturesshowanincrease,theonlyquestionbeinghowmuchofanincreaseandhowfast. AmphibiousShips:Newamphibiousconceptsandtheintroductionofasmallamphibiousshipimplyreductionsinthenumberoflargeamphibiousships.
8、However,aswiththelargesurfacecombatants,industrialbaseinterestswillclashwiththenewandlowergoals. AttackSubmarines:Allfuturearchitecturesenvisionanincreaseinthesizeoftheattacksubmarinefleet.However,slowproductioninthe1990sandproductioncapacitylimitstodaywilllimitfleetsizeuntilthe2040s. BallisticMissi
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