2024年欧元区经济报告.docx

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1、MacroeconomicdevelopmentsAfteracontinuedreboundin2022,theeuro-areaeconomywitnessedastrongdecelerationthisyear.I”2022,仪/gev出VZ-CCMU心Uzwtvpduhuh-to-334%CZnzmizemM/PezfhivCtaergypru/izvZwtMerof2CQ2-)ZetAn0vcUCnThZZLabotrJAwkPuMZ(X6*vlwJyJIc6y叶nAx#tfzMzmt/rlte*veez5Mpp6rfa吁SfiLLi(VXrrifvtczlnavcCMz%jD/o

2、f-H7wfVHmCKpMrWOV板冰5z吁2223.Fbr2223,CPP阶核eunrrezMdby06%wvWffarzyerQwG%Mz.lRealGDPgrowthandcontributions,euroareaConsumptionmbInvestment(GFCF)InventoriesinvestmentNetexportsRealGDPgrowth(Z)dajrEA2O邛rf-Hia检斓业Wi外Source:EiAnJPezu*v6m*vvfPertM*uLCZM/)妙-vivie/ftvt/.RmmtMLwavotdborJajdtMyf%jbk/UAzmeCFVnvprf

3、iavvMi/vcz11rrRee-rvyfu-廿wtake6n6mu/vc7wvczrcnMLNWkrdUjin/utrytMrvvuz5mewKhzwvcvwuiLu0vZ(i)cvejpoiprvjccttbOfrovro4roJW?UHXC/PaewrvculUzjuc)joMlewutMvvej;hz/M姑廿btj(z?mctzpvJILIFVOdobtiri-24%Tk出WtrV的m43%ivSfdbcrjjL核kvuj77p)nwMzPekZin/O(ober2022.7deliwe*vriwi%falLuenayf2rue(pt2-6vzZtAL(pwMwiv-/MzMrczm

4、njLowtirJbrfojCZnWVwiyprugezrwtcewin/ZzrvCnpri/-0)txlLYuaom忒他U他也心心口如VI必WdMktLSrviiWunz0-(X壮oczmwtC初OJiJrCZmpdnyv/5/(4GivOcfb,OfttirOFVujto-56%CfvJi),叶norwfhirewju*uprofit(seeBox3.1)de5t*如晶Cybrcznjv5*vu0(urwThzzyMeunmu(ietehzz(/eeinLferwy($ezSfcvAOVenlVJuMirJbi*vWu？n/3rojeeeztrkluZi*v-fMewtrAmildrebo

5、undingrowthisexpectedduetoeasingofinflationandastronglabourmarketBken224jz/5lCPviUun/(j)HinJpe*vConAniiin6u*vtcMMner5Mrvtyareafrom8.4%n2022to5.6%n2023,andthenfurtherdownto3.2%in2024and2.2%in2025.Coreinflation(?)isexpectedtobeslightlymorepersistent,however,increasingto5.1%in2023from4.0%in2022,andthen

6、subsequentlyfallingto3.2%in2024and2.5%in2025.(Graph1.2)inpricesovertheprevious10years(Graph1.3).Inanumberofcountries1includingtheBaIticstCroatiaandSlovakia,theshockisevenstronger.Graph1.3:Convergenceofunderlyinginflation,euroareaGraph1.2Jnflationbreakdown,euroareaEnergyandunprocessedfood(pps.)Otherc

7、omponents(coreInflatkn)(pps.)-HICP,allitemsSourceEuropeanCOrnmiSSion0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-ll(1)HICPinflationexdudingfoodandenergy(2)2019-2023cumulatedinflationcomparedto2009-2019cumulatedinflationSource:Eurostat,owncalculationsThedecreaseinenergypricesover2023haspartlyreducedthedifferencesininflatio

8、nratesbetweentheeuro-areacountries.In2022,theinflationdispersionintheeuroareawaslargelydrivenbydiferencesinenergyinflation,reflectingdifferenceintheenergymixandinthesourcesofimportedenergy,aswellassupportmeasuresimplementedinthevariousMemberStates.Energypricesareexpectedtodecreasein2023formostMember

9、States,withthestrongestdecreaseintheMemberStatesthatfacedthesharpestincreasesin2022,notablytheNetherIandsjEstoniaandBelgium.However,thecorrectioninenergypricesremainsfarfromcomplete,withsomecountriessettocontinuerecordingpositiveenergyinflation.MoreoverJnfIationexcludingfoodandenergyremainedhighinmo

10、stMemberStatesin2023,dueinparticulartothelaggingeffectofhighenergyprices.lntheeuroarea,thecoreinflationrecordedsince2019iscomparabletothecumulatedincrease?)CoreinflationisdefinedinthisreportasoverallHICPinflationexcludingenergy,food,alholandtobac.Thelabourmarketisclosetofullemployment,andwagegrowthi

11、sgraduallyrestoringpurchasingpower.Overthelasttwoyears,unemploymentratesthroughouttheeuroareahavestabilisedatrecordlowIeveIstStandingat6.5%inSeptember,downfrom6.7%inthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.Meanwhile,employmentcontinuestoincreaseinalmostoftheMemberStates,exceptItaIyjLatvia,CroatiaandEstonia,re

12、cordingfrommodesttomoderatecontractionoftheiremploymentratesinQ22023.Employmentgrowthisparticularlystronginlowenergy-dependentsectors,notablysomeservices(SeeSection3).Despitetheslowdowninactivityinthefirstpartof2023,thelabourmarketremainsverytight,witheuro-areajobvacancyrateremainingatelevatedlevels

13、(3%inQ22023).nthatcontext,wageshavesofarnotkeptpacewithinflation,whichislikelyduetoalaggedwagebargaining.In2023,thereareearlysignsofwageacceleration(seeSection2),althoughrealwagesareonlyexpectedtoreboundasoftheendof2023andrecovermoderatelyinthecourseof2024.Theeurorealeffectiveexchangeratehasappreciatedin2023dentingcostcompetitiveness.IXZLq-2Cf22.ictrrtizof-fhkvuu/v-frcupar/rycunrare/VcZj*czmcvnzSizyMjZzivUaflafytvivvv0*vrteufervuvZurtropjjoJixcuntn;