CBRE-政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告20230.docx

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1、CBREVIEWPOINTWe explore whether index- linked Government bond oc BBB corporate bond yields are more useful than nominal Government bond yields for analysing prime real estate pricingCBRE RESEARCH DECEMBER 2023IntelligentInvestmentAreGovernmentorcorporatebondyieldsabetterbenchmarkforUKrealestateprici

2、ng?Prime real estate yields rose in the last 18 months, but SDreadS over nominal and red G vlds r,r什u.,.lKeytakeaways-Primerealestateyieldsroseinthelast18monthstoreflectthec11oedinterestrateenvironmentbutthescreedbetweenIXMneyieldsand10-yearGovenmen(bondyieldsremainslightcomparedwiththelastdecadeCur

3、rent ocin miaM IOOk unfavourable based on these ComDariSOg but history shows the DoeAion can change OUiCkN-Smalls(xedsovernominalGovernmentbondyieldswereobserveddurmgtheGlobalFinancialCrisisof27-0.buttheyWefealsoConlmonDteCebeforethisWrthtacetreturnsforrealestatemetIhrouahacombnadonofinitialInCOmean

4、dcashAoworowth-index-linkedGovernmentbondsareabetterbenchmarkforthefkreeratewhenanaysinorealestate,becausecashtowrwthi$tearltobothtvoeso(investmentTheSDfeddbetweencrimeyieldsandIOVeari11(texrlnjedCbeenconsistentlypositivethroughtime,dithouohitisnownarrowerthanmrecentveers-CorDaatebondyieldshavealsos

5、hownaclo$6rcocresporfencewithrealestateyieldssincetheseinvestments,likerealestate,offeterminterestratesstartfllmnreflectionofadclmnUKinflationrateandanendtotheraterts11cycleHave spreads been more consistent bet ween real estate yields and these oher measures, and do such comparisons suggest that a t

6、ighter spread over nominalGovernment bond yields could be sustained Soingforward?IntroductionTheUKhasseenasustainedriseinbothshort-termadlong-terminterestratesoverthelasttwoveariThisfollowedadecadeinwhichtheBdnkofEnglandbaseratewasbelow1%,borrowingcostsweretYDtcallvvervlow.andGovernmentbondyieldswer

7、ealsoVCrVlow.supportedM9(XoQrammeofquantitativeeasing.Overthatsamedecade,awidemarginexitedbetweenrealestateyieldsandGovernmentbondViekKHence,whatEiahtbetheImDlicationSforUKrealestateDfiCinafromrecentrisesinGovernmentandcorporatebondyw(Kandhowfardorealestateyieldshavetorisetoreflectthechangedfinancia

8、lenvironment?TighterspreadsbetweenUKrealestateVieMSandnominalGovernmentbondyieldshavebeenobservedintheoastbutthesemhthaveresultedfromdifferentinvestorexpectationsaboutcashflowgrowthordifferencesintheriskoremumreouiredforrealestateinvestmentWeexploresomeoftheadvantagesandChaItefKW5ofCOnWinQrealestate

9、yieldsagainstindex-linkedGovernnwntbondyields,andCorooratebondyieldsasMtefnMeStonominalGovernmentbonds.Havespreadsbeenmoreconsistentbetweenrealestateyieldsandtheseothermeasures,anddosuchcomwrisonsSUQgeStthalatighterspreadovernominalGovernmentbondyieldscouldbesustainedQOinaforward?NominalGiltyieldsTa

10、rgetreturnratesforprimerealestateives(wntsshouldreflecttherisk-freerateofreturn,plusapremiumforbearingtherisksassociatedwithm!estate,butinvestorsdonotneedtoreceivetheirtargetreturnratefromcurrentinconeifthefuturecashflowsfromralestateinvestmentsareexpectedtorise.Therefore,theyieldtheyreceiveinitiall

11、ycanbeowfthantheirtargetrate.Thismeansthatyieldswillbenftuencednotonvbvrkreeratesandriskpremiums,butalsobygrowthexpectations.ThemostcommonproxyforariskreerateinanalysisofUKComCnefCiaIrealestateisthereemoverGltsaoaistanaHPrODertVprimeyieldoverthelast35veers.TheMpropertyyieldisconstructedasacompositeo

12、fprimeyieldsrecordedbyCBREforthehighstreetretail,office,andindustrialsectorsoftheUKrealestatemarket.ThecomparisonshowsthatthespreadbetweenrealestateyieldsandIOyearnonnalGiKyieldshasvariedalotovertime.Theaveragespreadsince2013hasbeen25ibobutwasonly86bosinthedecadeDCiortothis,whitetherewereperiodsMthe

13、198OSand19905whenthe10-yeMGtttyieldwasabovetheprimerealestateyield.Moreover,nocallmovementsinnominalGityieldsleadtochangesinrealestateVieidWThiSt$becausesomefactorsthatcauseGItyieldstoriseOrfNLsuchchangingexpectationsforinflation,mightproduceadifferentreactioninrealestateVieid$Forexample.HhiQhefinflationwasexpectedtooenefatehighercashflowgrowth,thiswouldcounteractriseinthensk-frcorateHence,thelimitationsofthiscomparisonarethatitomitsconsiderationofhowviewsaboutriskorgrowtharechanging.ThisisespeciallyrelevantforunderstandingrecentChanQeSinthespreadbetweenrealestateYieldsandnominalGittyie