亚开行-家庭通胀预期调查中的非响应偏差（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告20230120.docx

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1、NONRESPONSEBIASINHOUSEHOLDINFLATIONEXPECTATIONSSURVEYSNO.706ADBECONOMICSDecember2023WORKINGPAPERSERIESADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesNonresponseBiasinHouseholdInflationExpectationsSurveysMeltem Chadwick, Rennae Cherry, and Jaqueson K. GalimbertiNo. 706 I December 2023The ADB Economics Working PaperSe

2、ries presents research in progress to elicit comments and encourage debate on development issues in Asia and the Pacific. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.Meltem Chadw

3、ick (meltem.chadwickseacen.org) is a senior economist at the South East Asian Central Banks Research and Training Centre. Rennae Cherry (rennae.cherryrbnz.govt.nz) is an economic analyst at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Jaqueson K. Galimberti (jgalimbertiadb.org) is an economist at the Economic R

4、esearch and Development Impact Department, Asian Development Bank.缸_CBMCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)2023AsianDevelopmentBank6ADBAvenue.MandaluyongCity,ISSOMetroManila.PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2023.ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(ele

5、ctronic)PublicationStockNo.WPS230552-2DOI:WPS230552-2TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesOfcheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationand

6、acceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm

7、countryinthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adapta

8、tions,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps:/www.adb.0rg/terms-use#0penaccess.ThisCChtmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedcoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasa

9、resultofyouruseofthematerial.Pleasecontactpubsmarketingadb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo.CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundatNoteInthispublication.NZSrefers

10、toNewZealanddollars.ABSTRACTThispaperusesmicrodatafromtheReserveBankofNewZealand,sHouseholdInflationExpectationssurveytoobtainanaccuratereadofhouseholds*trueinflationexpectationsbystudyinghowdifferentdemographicgroupsrespond(ordonotrespond)totheinflationexpectationsquestioninthesurvey.Wefindnonrespo

11、nsesleadtosubstantialunderrepresentationofsomedemographicgroupsinthesurvey:young,female,low-income,andminorityethnicgroupshavelowerresponserates.Howthesurveyisconductedalsoaffectsitemresponserates.Thesurveyresponseratesincreasewhenthesurveyisconductedonlineandwheninflationratesdeviatefromthecentralb

12、ank,stargetrange.Usingasampleselectionmodel,weassesswhetherthesurveyhasitemnonresponsebiasbycomparingthedemographiccharacteristicsofrespondersandnonresponders.Afteraccountingforselection,wefindthatobserveddifferencesininflationexpectationsbygender,ethnicity,andincomedecreasesubstantially,whilediffer

13、encesbyageincrease.Wequantifyanddemonstratehowtoadjustaverageinflationexpectationsforbiascausedbyitemnonresponse.Weshowthatthereisapositivebias,andtheaggregateinflationexpectationseriesshiftsdownaftertheadjustment.Keywords:inflationexpectations,householdsurveys,itemnonresponse,demographicheterogenei

14、tyJELcodes:C83,D84,E31,E71Paperpresentedatthe2023BISAnnualWorkshopoftheAsianResearchNetwork,the2023ConferenceoftheNewZealandAssociationofEconomists,the5thBankofIndonesia-ADBInstitute-AsiaPacificAppliedEconomicsAssociationWorkshop,andattheADB/ERDISeminarSeries.WethankSeunghyeonLeeandBhaveshGargforthe

15、insightfuldiscussionsofourpaperandotherparticipantsofthepresentationsaboveformanycomments.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheircorrespondinginstitutionalaffiliations.Correspondingauthor:JaquesonK.Galimberti(jgalimbertiadb.org)1 IntroductionMeasur

16、esofinflationexpectationsareofparamountimportancetomonetarypolicy.Inflationexpectationsarekeydeterminantsofpricesthroughtheforward-lookingbehaviorofhouseholdsandfirmswhilealsounderpinningwhetherbeliefsareanchoredtothecentralbanksinflationtarget.Surveysarethemostcommoninstrumentusedtomeasureinflationexpectations.Whereasthefocusisonaggregatemeasures,suchasaveragesandmedians,itiscrucialtounderstandtheaccur