世界经济论坛-扩大可持续航空燃料供应：克服欧洲、美国和中东的障碍（英）-2024.3.docx

WQR1.DECONOMICFQRUMIncollaborationwithKearneyScalingUpSustainableAviationFuelSupply:OvercomingBarriersinEurope,theUSandtheMiddleEastINSIGHTREPORTMARCH2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 ScalingSAFforEurope111.1 Europeansituationandchallenges121.2 Keyactionstotake131.2.1 Collaboration131.2.2 Finance141.2.3 Policy152 ScalingSAFfortheUS172.1 USsituationandchallenges182.2 Keyactionstotake192.2.1 Collaboration192.2.2 Finance212.2.3 Policy223 ScalingSAFfortheMiddleEast233.1 MiddleEastsituationandchallenges243.2 Keyactionstotake243.2.1 Cross-industryllaboration253.2.2 Improvingefficiencyinexistingrefineries253.2.3 Power-to-liquiddeployment253.2.4 Governmentandregulatorengagement263.2.5 Publicawarenessandeducation26Conclusion:WhatwillittaketoscaleSAFglobally?27Contributors29Acknowledgements29Endnotes31DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandnclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.March2024ScalingUpSustainableAviationFuelSupply:OvercomingBarriersinEurope,theUSandtheMiddleEastForeword1.aiaBarbaraHead,ClimateStrategy,WorldEomicForumClaudiaGaleaGlobalSustainabilityDirector,KeameyTheWorldEconomicForumandAirportsCouncilInternational(ACI)Worldareco-leadingtheAirportsofTomorrowinitiative,whichseekstoaddresstheenergy,infrastructureandfinancingneedsoftheaviationindustry'stransitiontonet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050.Theinitiativehasconvenedexecutivesfromacrosstheaviationsectorwithanaimofacceleratingthemovetowardsincreasedsustainabilityandresilience.Thisreportpresentskeyfindingsfromourworkonsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)in2023.WeshowcasecriticaltechnologiesforSAFscalingandtheiradvantages,aswellasthegreatestchallengesatthistime.FutureSAFvolumeshavebeenanalysedandoptimalglobalproductionhubsidentifiedtosatisfythisemergingdemand.Furthermore,wefocusedonadequateregulationandpolicytoenableglobalSAFscaling,aswellasinsightsandimportantthemesforspecificuntriesandregions.Thereportfocusesonthreeregions-Europe,theUSandtheMiddleEast-andntainsinsightsfromstakeholdersintheaviationandenergyindustriesaswellasthepublicsector.ThemaingoalistoprovideacomprehensiveoverviewoftheexistingchallengesforSAFadoptionandhighlightwhichactionsstakeholdersalongtheentirevaluechainshouldtaketomovetowards10%SAFin2030andsubsequentsectordecarbonizationby2050.ThisworkwasdevelopedbytheWorldEconomicForuminpartnershipwithKearney,ACIWorld,AirbusandArup.Wethankourpartnersandindustrysponsorsfortheirsupport.ExecutivesummaryTheaviationsectorfaceschallengesinscalingSAF5requiringcollectiveeffortstoacceleratetechnologydeployment,securedemandcertaintyandestablishconduciveregulatoryframeworks.Airtravelcontributes2-3%ofglobalCO2emissions,1primarilyduetoaircraftfossilfuelconsumption.Furthermore,theprojecteddemandforaviationfuelcouldsurgebyover50%by2050comparedto2019,increasingthissharesignificantly.2Despiterecognitionoftheimportanceofsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)indecarbonizingtheindustry,globalproductionremainsinsufficient,withannouncedprojectscoveringonly30-40%oftheaspirational10%ofglobalfuelsupplyin2030.Solvingthissupplyshortagerequiresdeployingexistinganddevelopingnoveltechnologiesinregionswithfavourableconditions.AppropriateregulationsandpoliciesarealsoneededtocreateaSAFmarketgiventhatSAFproductioniscurrentlytwotofivetimescostlierthanfossiljetfuel.3Europehasbeenleadingthewayonmanypoliciesaimedatadvancingthedecarbonizationofitseconomy,suchastheimplementationofemissionstradingsystems(ETS)andadoptingtheReFueIEUlegislation,committingtotangibleSAFmandatesofupto70%offuelsupplyby2050.4Stakeholdersarenowfocusingoncollaborationintechnologydevelopment,providingtransparentSAFpropertiesandcommittingtolong-termSAFagreements.Thepublicandprivatesectorswillneedtocometogethertounlockthesignificantinvestmentsrequiredtoscale.IntheUS,financialincentivesarestimulatingtechnologydevelopmentanddeployment.TheInflationReductionAct(IRA)containstaxcreditsforproducers.1.ocallegislation,especiallyonthewestcoast,aimstoattractproduction.Withoutmandates,theindustryislookingforpartnershipstoensurelong-termofftakesandtangiblerisk-sharingagreements.Extendingboththedurationandavailabilityoffederalincentivescanprovidegreaterplanningsecurityfornewproductionfacilities.IntheMiddleEast,localconditionsandtheregion'sroleasaglobalaviationhubarefavourablefortheproductionofSAF.Withcheaprenew