世界银行-缅甸2023年5月特大气旋风暴莫查：全球灾后快速损失估计（GRADE）报告（英）.docx

JUNE29,2023Pzou<al11soosQo=qndNexttoabrokenbridgeinSittwe,inMyanmar'sRakhinestate,washedashorefishingboatsarepiledup.Source:SaiAungMain/AFP.PaZ一一0£n<amsoosQo=qndExtremelySevereCyclonicStormMOCha,May2023,Myanmar:GlobalRapidPost-DisasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)ReportDisclaimerThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.©2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:Internet:ementsThisreportwaspreparedbyateamledbyRashminGunasekera(Urban,DisasterRiskManagementResilienceand1.andGlobalPractice-GPUR1.zWorldBank).TheteamcomprisesofJamesDaniell,AntoniosPomonis,JoshuaMacabuag,JohannesBrand,BramkaArgaJafinozJensdeBruijnzDianaCubas,RoberthRomerozAungNaingOozandKerriCoxoftheGFDRR,sGlobalProgramforDisasterRiskAnalyticsandtheWorldBank'sGPUR1.DisasterResilienceAnalyticsandSolutions(D-RAS)team.TheteamwassupportedbytheGFDRRGlobalProgramfortheDisasterandFCVNexus(D-FCV),comprisingofKarimaBenBihzKatiePeters,and1.ara1.oussert.ThisWorldBankengagementintheEastAsiaandPacific(EAP)RegionwasledbyJolantaKryspin-WatsonwithsupportfromKhinAyeYeezDixiMengote-Quah(EAPUrban/DisasterRiskManagement-DRM),andSutirthaSinhaRoy(EAPPovertyandEquity),ValensMwumvaneza(EAPAgricultureandFood),KemoMansaray(EAPMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestment),andKimAllanEdwards(EAPEquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutions);withguidanceprovidedbyMingZhang(PracticeManager,EAPUrban/DRM).TheteamisgratefulforcollaborationandinputsfromUNDPandMIMUteamincluding:OanaMihai,ShonCampbell,KyawZeyaHtunzandothers.TheteamisalsogratefulfortheJust-In-TimefinancialsupportoftheGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR).AbbreviationsNDMC:D-RAS:FAO:GAD:GPUR1.GRADE:MIMU:MOA1.I:PDNA:NationalDisasterManagementCommitteeDisaster-ResilienceAnalytics&SolutionsTeam,WorldBankGroupFoodandAgricultureOrganisationoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAdministrativeDepartmentUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilienceand1.andGlobalPracticeGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimationMyanmarInformationManagementUnitMyanmarMinistryofAgriculture1.ivestockandIrrigationPost-DisasterNeedsAssessmentContentsAcknowledgements3Abbreviations3ExecutiveSummary5KeyFindings5EstimatedDamages61Introduction811Eventdescription81.2Impacts91.2.1 DamagereportsinRakhineState101.2.2 Damagereportsinotherstates/regions141.2.3 Additionalinformation161 4Conflictexacerbateddisasterriskandimpacts172 AThehistoricalcontextoftropicalcyclonesinMyanmar193 Methodologyandresults2271Exposure222.2Methodologyadopted24?4Estimateddamages2524Socio-economicvulnerabilityconsiderations292.4.1 MultidimensionalpovertyandstructuralvulnerabilityofMyanmarhouseholds292.4.2 ExposureofsociallyvulnerablehouseholdstoCycloneMocha31qInterpretationofresults324Conclusions34Annex 1 -Methodology36Annex 2 -GRADEDataSummary39Annex 3 -ImpactsOftropicalcyclones/stormsaffectingMyanmar(1968to2022)42ExecutiveSummaryGiventhefragileandconflict-affectedsituationwithlimitedaccessinMyanmar,theWorldBankhasadoptedtheGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)methodologytoestimatedamagesarisingfromCycloneMocha.GRADEisaremote,desktopanalysistoestimatedamagetocapitalstock.ThisreportsummarizestheresultsoftheGRADEGlobalRApidpost-disasterDamageEstimation(GRADE)approachdevelopedattheWorldBankandconductedbytheUrban,DisasterRiskManagement,Resilienceand1.andGlobalPractice(GPUR1.)Disaster-ResilienceAnalytics&Solutions(D-RAS)KnowledgeSiloBreaker(KSB).Themethodologyaimstoaddressspecificdamageinformationneedsinthefirstweeksafteramajordisaster.Fordetailsofthemethodologysee:conductedtoassessdamagesfollowingtheimpactofExtremelyseverecyclonicstormThisterminologyfollowstheclassificationoftropicalcyclonesintheWMOregionaltropicalcyclonebodies.Availablefrom:accessed18/06/2023MochainMyanmarduringMay2023.KeyFindings TotalDamages:ThemedianestimateoftotaldirectdamagescausedbyCycloneMochaisUS$2.24billion,equivalentto3.4%ofMyanmar'sGDPin2021.Thisincludesdamagestoresidentialandnon-residentialbuildingsandcontents,agriculture,andinfrastructure. OutputDefinition:Economicimpactsarereportedintermsofcapitaldamages,estimatedviatheGRADEmethodology. AffectedSectors:Basedondamagesestimatedfromreportedimpacts,theresidentialhousingsectoristhehardesthit,followedbynon-residentialbuildingsandinfrastructure,andthenagriculture. SpatialDistribution:Over80%ofthedamagesoccurredinRakhineandSagaing.Rakhinewasthewo