2023年天然气过剩：全球天然气发电扩张继续阻碍能源转型（英）.docx

GasGIutG1.OBA1.GASPOWEREXPANSIONCONTINUESTOTHWARTENERGYTRANSITIONGlobalMonitorABOUTG1.OBA1.ENERGYMONITORGlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)developsandsharesinformationinsupportoftheworldwidemovementforcleanenergy.Bystudyingtheevolvinginternationalenergylandscapeandcreatingdatabases,reports,andinteractivetoolsthatenhanceunderstanding,GEMseekstobuildanopenguidetothevvorld,senergysystem.FollowusatWWW.globalcncrgymonitor.organdonTwitterGIQbaIEnergyMon.ABOUTTHEG1.OBA1.OI1.ANDGASP1.ANTTRACKER(GOGPT)TheGlobalOilandGasPlantTracker(GOGPT)isanonlinedatabasethatidentifiesandmapseveryknownoil-andgas-firedgeneratingunitandeverynewunitproposedsinceJanuary1,2020(20MWandlargerintheEuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom,50MWorIargerelsewhere).DevelopedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor,thetrackerusesfootnotedwikipagestodocumenteachplantandisupdatedbiannually.ForfurtherdetailsseethetrackerIandingPageandmethodologyoverview.EDITING,PRODUCTION,ANDOTHERCONTRIBUTIONSDesignandpagelayoutbyDavidVanNess.MapsandfigurescreatedbyScottZimmermanandNassosStylianou.EditingcontributionswereprovidedbyJulieJoly,DavidHoffman,andStefaniCox.ACKNOW1.EDGMENTSTheauthorswouldliketothankalloftheresearcherswhocontributedtothedevelopmentofthisdatasettoenablethisreportandanalysisGregorClark,Amalia1.lanozChristineJUta,NorahElmagraby,NagwaAbdallah,NataliaSidorovska-ya-Fretz,ZhanaiymKozybayzChengChengWuzXiaojunPeng,HarveyHassan,Will1.omer,andWardaAjaz.PermissionszcopyrightCopyright©GlobalEnergyMonitor.DistributedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0International1.icense.FURTHERRESOURCESForadditionaldataonproposedandexistingoilandgasplants,seeSUmrnaryTableSontheGEMwebsite.ToobtainprimarydatafromtheGOGPTzvisittheDOWnlOadDatapage.AboutthecoverThecoverimageisamapcreatedbyScottZimmermanofoperatingglobaloil-andgas-firedpowerplants.AUTHORSJennyMartos(ProjectManagerGOGPT),WardaAjaz(ProjectManagerAsiaGasTracker),GregorClark(ProjectManagerPortalEnergdticoparaAmerica1.atina),NorahElmagraby(researcher),HarveyHassan(researcher),ChristineJuta(ProjectManagerAfricaGasTracker),andNataliaSidorovskaya-Fretz(researcher).GlobalEnergyMonitorGasGlut2023G1.OBA1.GASPOWEREXPANSIONCONTINUESTOTHWARTENERGYTRANSITIONJennyMartoszWardaAjaz,GregorClark,NorahElmagraby,HarveyHassanzChristineJutazandNataliaSidorovskaya-FretzINTRODUCTIONOilandgashavehadabigyear.Oil-andgas-fired1powerplantsindevelopmentprojectsthathavebeenannouncedorareinthepre-construction2andconstructionphases-increased13%inthelastyearto783gigawatts(GW),mainlydrivenbyincreasesincapacityofprojectsinthepre-constructionandconstructionphases.(Figure1)Ifbuilt,theseprojectswouldgrowtheglobaloilandgasfleetbyathirdatanestimatedcostofUS$611billionincapitalexpenditure,creatingalifetimeemissionspotentialequivalenttomorethansixandhalfyearsoftheUnitedStates7emissions.Drivenbyconcernsoverenergysecurityandpromisesofadurabletransitionfueltodecarbonizeeconomies,countriesaroundtheworldaredevelopingoilandgas,mostnotablyinAsiaandtheUnitedStates.Russia,swarinUkrainehaschangedthecalculusforEuropeintermsofitsenergysupplychoices,whileinplaceswithextensiverenewablespotentialandcomparativelysmallerfossilfuelssectorslikeAfricaand1.atinFigure1.Changesinoilandgascapacityindevelopment,mid-2022tomid2023.Globaloil&gaspowerpantcapacityindevelopmentingigawatts(GW)1mid2022tomid-20231.GEMhistoricallyhastrackedgasanddualfuel(ie:gas/oil,gas/coal,gas/bioenergy)powerplantsintheGlobalGasPlantTracker(GGPT).IntheexpandedandrenamedGlobalOilandGasPIantTracker(GOGPT),GEMisnowincludingoil,dualfuel(withgasoroil),andgasfiredpowerplants.2.Pre-constructionprojectsincludethosethatareactivelymovingforwardinseekinggovernmentalapprovals,landrights,orfinancing.AmericaandtheCaribbean,plansforoilandgasplantsaregainingafoothold.Butithasalsobeenabigyearforextremeweatherevents.DuringtheseCritiCalmomentswhenenergyhasbeenneededthemost,fossilfuelgenerationhasattimesfailed.FromfatalpoweroutagesintheU.S.duringthewinterArcticblaststorisingtemperaturesacrosstheMiddleEastbucklinggasturbines,variableweatherpatternsbroughtonbyachangingclimatehaveupendednotionsoffossilfuesreliability.Atthesametime,gas,reputationasacleanertransitionfuelcontinuestounravel,asitssignificantcontributiontoclimatechangeduetomethaneleakagesatextractionandtransportationbecomesbetterunderstood.Bysomeestimates,methaneIeakageaslowas0.2%putsgas,climateimpactonparwithcoal,andtheactualleakageratesrangefrom3.7%to9%orhigher.Ifsnosurprisethenthat150countries,representingnearlyhalfofglobalmethaneemissions,havesignedtheGIobalMethanePledge,endorsingitsgoalofreducingmethaneemissions30%by2030.Againstthisbackdrop,thecallfromtheinternationalscientificcommunitytostopanynewconstructiononfossilfuelinfrastructureinordertolimitplanetarywarmingto1.5becomesmoreurgent.ExpandingoilandgascapacityrepresentsacostlyStrandCdassetriskwhilealsodivertingresourcesawayfromtheenergytransition,whichbysomeestimatescallsfortriplinginstalledrenewablepowercapacityby2050.Coupledwiththerapi