布鲁盖尔研究所-将社会投资和改革的影响纳入欧盟新的财政框架（英）-2024.3.docx

11ntroductionTheupdatetotheEuropeanUnion,sfiscalrulesagreedinFebruary2024willchangefundamentallytheplanningandsurveillanceofthefiscalpoliciesofEUcountriesAgreementonthenewrulesis,attimeofwriting,stillsubjecttoratificationbytheCounciloftheEUandtheEuropeanParliament;seeCounciloftheEUpressreleaseof10February2024(updated21February),Tconomicgovernancereview:CouncilandParliamentstrikedealonreformoffiscalrules,releases/2024/02/1(Vecotomiuqovernancejeviewgiinciband-DarIiamentSmkedeal-on-refo11-of-fiscal-rules/.Underthenewframework,theEuropeanCommissionwillissuetoEUcountriesfour-to-sevenyearreferencetrajectoriesintendedtoshowhowtheyshouldbringtheirspendingGovernmentexpenditurenetofinterestspending,cyclicalunemploymentspending,discretionrevenuemeasures,EU-fundednationalspending,co-financingofEUprogrammesandone-offs.undercontrol-orintechnicalterms,ensuringtheirpublicdebtsareona"plausiblydownwardpath"(orremainingbelow60percentofGDP),asdeterminedbyacountry-specificdebtsustainabilityanalysis(DSA)augmentedbynumerical'safeguards'SeeAnnex1forthefournumericalsafeguardrequirements.EUcountrieswillsubsequentlysubmitmedium-termfiscal-structuralplans(MTFSPs),whichtheCommissionwillevaluate.Iftheseincludereformsandpublicinvestmentthatmeetcertaincriteria-suchasbeinggrowth-enhancingandsupportiveoffiscalsustainability,andraisinginvestmentoverthemediumterm-theywouldjustifyanextensionoftheadjustmentperiodfromfourtosevenyears.Totheextentthattheseplansareexecutedandinfluenceproductivitygrowth,thecapitalstockandlaboursupply,theywouldalsoimpactthefuturedebtpath.ThisP如erproposesanapproachforquantifyingthisimpactandintegratingitintothenewframework,takingintoaccountuncertaintyabouttheimplementationofreformsandtheireconomiceffects.Akeycomponentofthisapproachisthedevelopmentofaquantitativemethodologythatquantifiesthereformandinvestmentsimpacts.Developingsuchamethodologyisimportantfortworeasons.First,countriesthatsucceedinobtaininganextensionoftheadjustmentperiodwilllikelyarguethattheirproposedreformsandinvestmentsjustifyless-stringentadjustmentthanenvisagedintheCommission'sreferencetrajectory(whichprecedestheMTFSPs,andhencedoesnottakeintoaccountnewreforms),Thisraisesthequestionofhowthetrade-offbetweenpromisedreforms/investmentandfiscaladjustmentshouldbequantified.Second,whilethereferencetrajectoriesdonottakeintoaccounttheimpactofproposedreforms,theydotrytotakeintoaccounttheimpactofrecentreforms.However,someofthisimpactmaynotyetbeobservable-because,forexample,reformshaveonlyjustbeenadopted-raisingmuchthesamemethodologicalproblemsasassessingtheimpactofpromisedreforms.Wepayparticularattentiontosocialinvestments,definedasreformsandincreasesinpublicspendingthatpursuesocialobjectivesForexample,increasedlabour-marketparticipation,accesstoqualityeducationandtraining,reductionandpreventionofpovertyrisks.andarealsoexpectedtoraiseeconomicgrowth.Thegrowth-enhancingeffectcouldmaterialisethroughtheimpactofsocialinvestmentsonhumancapitalandproductivity,includingviastrongerinnovativecapacityandabsorptionofnewtechnologies,and/orlaboursupply.Forexample,investmentsinchildcarecanraisetheIaboUrS叩ply;improvementsineducationandtrainingcanboostproductivityandgrowth;andreformsandinvestmentsinpublicemploymentservicescanimprovejobmatching,therebyincreasingoutput.However,notallincreasesinsocialoreducationalspendingaregoodforgrowth.Althoughsuchincreasesmightbevaluable,wewouldnotregardthemassocialinvestments.Inmanycases,itisdiffculttodecideexantewhethersocialspendingshouldqualifyassocialinvestment.Butforthepurposesofreflectingtheimpactofsocialspendingonthedebtsustainabilityanalyses,noex-anteclassificationisnecessary.Increasesinsocialspendingthatareproposedaspartofaninvestmentorreformplanwouldbeevaluatedfortheirgrowthimpacts,justlikeanyotherreformandinvestmentproposal.ThequestionofWhethersocialspendingqualifiesassocialinvestmentcanbeansweredexpost,basedonthisevaluationAnex-antedefinitionofsocialinvestmentwouldberequired,however,tocomparesocialinvestmentsacrosscountriesandtoundertakeresearchontheimpactofinvestmentslabelledassocial.Againstthisbackground,wefocusonfourissues.First,wesummarisetheincentivesforreformsandinvestmentsinthenewfiscalframeworkandevaluatetheirlikelyeffectiveness.Second,wereviewthecurrentpracticeofincorporatingreformandinvestmentimpactsintheDSA.Third,weprovidethreequantitativeexamplesofsocialinvestmentsandreformsandevaluatetheirimpactsonfiscaladjustmentneedsbyinsertingtheirexpectedgrowtheffectsintotheDSA;ourexamplesare:（八）achildcarepolicytoboostlaboursupply,(b)apolicytoincreasethequalityofeducation,and(c)alabourmarketpolicyaimedatincreasingtheshareofhigh-skilledworkers.Finally,werecommendaconservative叩PrOaChtoincorporatingtheimpactsofplannedreformsandinvestmentsintothegrowthtrajectoriesunderpinningDSAswithinthenewfiscalgovernanceframeworkoftheEU,andwediscussoptionsforagovernancestructure.2IncentivesforreformsandinvestmentsintheEU,snewfiscalframeworkUnderthenewfiscalframeworkcentredoncountry-specificdebtsustainabilityanalysis(D