亚开行-使用贝叶斯状态空间方法估计区域整合（英）-2024.1.docx

ESTIMATINGREGIONA1.INTEGRATIONUSINGTHEBAYESIANSTATE-SPACEAPPROACHManuel1.eonardAlbis,MaraClaireTayag,andJongWooKangNO.7I2January2024ADBECONOMICSWORKINGPAPERSERIESADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriesEstimatingRegionalIntegrationUsingtheBayesianState-SpaceApproachManuel1.eonardAlbis,MaraClaireTayag,andJongWooKangNo.712IJanuary2024TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.Manuel1.eonardAlbis(mhlbisup.edu.ph)isanassistantprofessorattheSchoolofStatistics,UniversityofthePhilippines.MaraClaireTayag(mtayagadb.org)isasenioreconomicsofficerandJongWooKang(jkangadb.org)isthedirectoroftheRegionalCooperationandIntegrationDivision,EconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartment,AsianDevelopmentBank.ICreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGo)©2024AsianDevelopmentBank6ADBAvenue.MandaluyongCity,ISSOMetroManila.PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2024.ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)PublicationStockNo.WpS2306222DOI:TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesOfcheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea.ThispublicationisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps:/www.adb.0rg/terms-use#0penaccess.ThisCChtmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedcoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial.Pleasecontactpubsmarketingadb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo.CorrigendacoADBpublicationsmaybefoundatNote:Inthispublication,*'$"referstoUnitedStatesdollars.ABSTRACTEstimatingregionalintegrationfaceschallengesbecauseofincompletedatafrommissingvaluesandinsufficienttimespans.AkeyadvantageofadynamicfactormodelestimatedusingtheBayesianstate-spaceapproachisitsabilitytohandlemissingvaluesandaggregationoftheregionalintegrationindicators.Thisapproachyieldsestimatesofbilateraleconomicintegration(BEI)usingregionalintegrationindicatorsonfourdimensions:trade,foreigndirectinvestments,finance,andmigration.Theregionalintegrationindex(RH)isderivedbyapplyingnetworkdensitytotheBEIestimatestorepresentthestrengthofregionalintegrationwithinAsiaandthePacific.TheBEIindexesnotonlyservetoestimatetheoverallRllbutenabletheidentificationofeconomypairsanddimensionsthataredrivingregionalintegrationinAsiaandthePacific.TheestimatedRllforAsiaandthePacificdeclinedslightlyinrecentyears,andtheintegrationnetworkbecamemorecenteredaroundthePeople,sRepublicofChina.Keywords:Bayesianstate-spacemodel,networkdensity,regionalintegrationindexJE1.codes:F02,F15,C81C11TheauthorsthankJoshuaGapay,KevinQuizon,DonnaBajaro,andDominiqueSyfortheirexcellentresearchsupport.1. IntroductionComplete,comprehensive,andcomparativeregionalintegrationindexes(RIIs)canplayanimportantroleinmonitoringtheprogressinregionalintegrationandderivingpolicyimplicationsonregionalcooperation.Thesuccessoftargetedregionaldevelopmentprogramsandpoliciescandependonaccurateassessmentofaspecificeconomyacrossdifferentaspectsofintegration.However,estimatingthedegreeofregionalintegrationisnosimplematter.Theavailabilityofnumerousintegrationindicators,questionsabouthowsuchindicatorsareaggregated,andincompletedataresultingfrommissingvaluesandinadequatetimespansareamongfactorsthatcreatechallenges.Thispaper,inacknowledgingthecomplexities,aimstooutlinemethodstogenerateregionalintegrationmeasuresattheeconomy-pairlevel.ThiscanbeusedtocreateanRlldescribingthecollectiveeconomiccohesivenessofalleconomiesinAsiaandthePacific.AsiaandthePacific,orAsia,consistsofthe49regionalmembereconomiesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).ThecompositionofeconomiesforCentralAsia,EastAsia,thePacificandOceania,SouthAsia,andSoutheastAsiaisoutlinedin:ADB.AsiaRegionalIntegrationCenter.EconomyGroupings.AdynamicfactormodelestimatedthroughtheBayesianstate-spaceapproachisusedtogeneratei