彼得森经济研究所-为清洁能源创新体系提供动力（英）-2024.3.docx

就PIIEPETERSONINS甯UTEFORINTERNATIONA1.FCONOMICS24-5PoweringthecleanenergyinnovationsystemReinhildeVeugelersMarch2024ABSTRACTReinhildeVeugelers1nonresidentseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,isafullprofessorinthedeportmentofmanagement,strategyandinnovationatKU1.euveninBelgium.SheisalsoaseniorfellowatBnjegel.Thispaperfocusesontheinnovationangleingreenindustrialpolicydesign.Theinnovationsystem,deliveringnewandimprovedtechnologysolutionsforthecleanenergytransition,canbethecornerstoneofasuccessfultransitionthatreconcilesdecarbonization,competitivevaluecreationandjobs,andstrategicautonomyonaglobalscale.This,however,requirestheinnovationsystemtobeproperlydirected.Thispaperfirstlaysouttheprinciplesofapolicydesignthatproperlysteerstheinnovationsystem.Itthendocumentsthecurrentperformanceoncleanenergyinnovationsandcleanenergypolicymakingglobally,withfocusontheInflationReductionAct(IRA)andtheNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA)trendsincleantechpolicymakingintheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion,respectively.Theevidenceshowsthattheinnovationsystemisnotatfullpotentialandthereisstillampleroomtoimprovethecurrentcleanenergypolicymakingandinternationalpolicycoordination.JE1.codes:031,038,Q55Keywords:climatechange,cleantech,innovation,greeninnovationpolicy,strategicautonomyNote:ThispaperwaspreparedforaconferenceonMoCrQeCQnQmiCImQlicQtionsOfClimQteACtiononJune5-6,2023,atthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics(PIIE).1750MassachusettsAveshington,DC20+1.202.328.9000INTR0DUC110NShiftingeconomiesfromfossilfuel-basedtogreenenergyrepresentsoneofthemostsignificantsocioeconomictransformationsinhistory.Thegreentransformationbringssocioeconomicopportunitiesandchallenges.Whilephasingoutfossilfuel-basedproducts,activities,andjobs,newgreenproducts,activities,andjobsarebeingcreated.Cleanenergyiskeytofosteringadeepdecarbonizationprocess.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatifcountriesworldwidefullyimplementtheirannouncedenergyandclimate2030pledges,theglobalmarketforkeymass-manufacturedcleanenergytechnologieswillhavetripledinsize.Cleanenergymanufacturingjobswouldmorethandoublefrom6milliontodaytonearly14millionby2030(IEA2023a).Recognizingtheopportunitiesandchallengesofthetransitionfromdirtytocleanenergy,allmajoreconomieshaveventuredintocleanenergyindustrialpolicyandarecompetingfortheirshareoftheglobaleconomicopportunitiesfromcleanenergy,reconcilingtheirdecarbonizationandsocioeconomictransformationobjectives.)TheCOVID-19outbreakdramaticallyexposedeconomiestotheirvulnerabilities,introducingacallforpoliciesensuringtheresilienceandsecurityofsupplyofinputsconsideredstrategic.ThewarinUkraineandthe"weaponizationuofRussiangasandChinesemineralsexacerbatedconcernsaboutsupplysecurity,particularlyforenergy,especiallyinEurope.Forexample,inMarch2020thenewlyestablishedEuropeanCommissionunderUrsulavonder1.eyenzwithclimategoalsfirmlyanchoredinitsGreenDealandFitfor55package,presenteditsNewIndustrialStrategyforEurope,centeredaroundthetwinningofitsgreenanddigitaltransitions.China'slatestFive-Year-Plan(2021-25)hascleanenergyhighonitsradar.AndtheUnitedStateszwithitsInflationReductionAct(IRA)adoptedinAugust2022,introducedamassivepackageofsupportfordeantechtechnologydeployment.TheEuropeanUnioninMay2022launcheditsREPowerEUplantotransitionfastertocleanenergy,diversifyitsenergysupplies,andsaveenergytoimproveits''strategicautonomyMinenergy.TheUSIRAisacleararticulationofthis,particularlyitslocalcontentrequirementstipulations,whichoutlinedEurope,sresponseinMarch2023withitsNet-ZeroIndustryAct(NZIA).Whiletheconceptof''openstrategicautonomyz,wasalreadypresentedinthe2020NewIndustrialStrategyforEurope,thishadmostlyChinaasa''systemicrivalMontheradar(EC2020).TheNZIAtakesits''strategicautonomyincleanenergyafewstepsfurther,reactingtothedeepenedgeopoliticalrisks.Allmajoreconomiesarenowcombiningtheirclimateandcleanenergyindustrialpolicieswitheffortstoensurethesecurityofenergysupplyandstrategicautonomyincleanenergyvaluechains.Intheabsenceofglobalpolicycoordination,thissetsinmotionatrainofmutuallyreinforcingreactivepressurestofurtherthestrategicautonomyangleincountries1cleanenergyindustrialpolicies?Countriesarestillfiguringouthowtoreconcilethemultidimensionalobjectivesofagreenindustrialpolicy,particularlywhenthesedimensionscounteracteachother.Whatarethebestwaystocombinedecarbonizationwitheconomicgrowth,jobs,andworldcompetitiveness,andallthiswithresilienceandsecurityofsupply?Whatisthesocioeconomicallybestwaytoachievedecarbonizationandresilience?Howandhowfartogoinmovingtowardsupplyresilienceandsecurity,andwhatarethecostsinmovingawayfromdecarbonizationandeconomicefficiency?Howfartomoveawayfromahorizontalpolicyapproachshapingframeworkconditionstoensureopenmarkets,suchasastrongcompetitionpolicyandopentrade?Howfartogotowardaverticalapproachtopickingtechnologiesandprojectsdeemedstrategictosecuresupply?Thispaperfocusesontheinnovationangleingreenindustrialpolicydesign.Thispaperfocusesoninnovationsforc