彼得森经济研究所-向净零排放过渡的宏观经济影响（英）-2024.3.docx

StephaneHallegatteisseniorclimatechangeadvisoroftheWoridBank.FlorentMcIsaacissenioreconomistattheMacroeconomicModellingUnitoftheMacroeconomics.TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.HasanDuduisoneconomistftheMiddleEastandCentralAsiaDepartmentoftheInternationalMonetaryFund.CamillaKnudsenisaneconomistattheWorldBank.ChartJoosteisasenioreconomistattheMocroecorxjmicModellingUnitoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.HansAnandBeckistheprogramleaderforTurkeyintheWorldBankEquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutionsGroup.d!nEPETERSONINSTITUTEFOR嘴斗1.=IntfpnationalFconomicsWORKINGPAPER24-6MacroeconomicimplicationsofatransitiontonetzeroemissionsApproachesofandlessonsfromWorldBankGroupCountryClimateandDevelopmentReports,withanapplicationtoTurkeyStephaneHallegattezFlorentMcIsaaczHasanDudu,CharlJoostezCam川aKnudsenzandHansBeckMarch2024ABSTRACTIn2022theWorldBankGrouplaunchedanewcorediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).Publishedfor42economiessofar,CCDRsuseresilientandlow-emissiondevelopmentscenariostoidentifysynergiesandtradeoffsbetweendevelopmentandclimateobjectives.Thereareseveralmodelingchallengesassociatedwiththeanalysisofthemacroeconomicconsequencesofthesedevelopmentpathways,includingthoserelatedtothenonmarginalnatureoftherequiredtransformation,theroleoftechnologies,andthereplacementoffossilfuel-basedassetswithgreenerones.Toaddresssomeofthesechallenges,severalCCDRshaveusedahybridmodelingapproachthatcombinesasetofsectoralanalyseswithmacroeconomicmodels.Specifically,sectoraltechno-economicmodelsareemployedtoconstructresilientandlow-emissiondevelopmenttrajectoriesinkeysectors.Themacroeconomicimplicationsofthesesectoraltransitionsarethenassessedbylinkingthesectoralmodelswithtwomacroeconomicframeworks:amultisectorgeneralequilibriumframeworkandanaggregatemacrostructuralmodel.Thishybridapproachcombinestheadvantagesofmultipletoolsandcapturesthevariousdimensionsofthetransition,includingtheneedtotacklemultiplemarketfailures,beyondtheemissionsexternality;analyzepriceandnonpricepoliciesandtheirinteractions;representexplicitlythereplacementofassetsandinfrastructure;assessthemacroeconomicfeasibilityofthesectoraltransitionsandtherequiredinvestments.ThispaperusesthecaseofTurkeytodescribethemethodologicalapproachandsummarizestheresultsoftheCCDRsthathavebeenpublishedtodate.Findingssuggestthat,despitelargeinvestmentneeds,thetransitioncan1750MassachusettsAveshington,DC20+1,202.328.9000contributepositivelytoeconomicgrowth,especiallywhenindirectmitigationbenefitsaretakenintoaccountbutonlyifstructuralchallengescanbemanaged,climateanddevelopmentpoliciesarewelldesigned,andnegativeimpactsonsomesectorsorcommunitiesaremitigated.JE1.Codes:E60,Q43,Q54Keywords:Macroeconomicmodeling;climatechange;technologicalchangeAuthor,sNote:ThispaperpreparedforaconferenceonMQCroeCQnOmiCImQlicQtionsOfClimQteAetiononJune5-6,2023,atthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics(PIIE)isanextensionofthemethodologicalpaperfocusedonTurkey,availableasStephaneHallegatte,FlorentMcIsaac,HasanDudu,CharlJooste,CamillaKnudsen,andHansBeck,2023,TheMQeroeConQmiCImQliCQtionsofQTrQnSitiQntoZeroNeiEmissions:AModelingFramework,PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10367,Washington:WorldBankGroup.ThisworkispartoftheanalyticalworkfortheWorldBankCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR)forTurkeyandbenefitedfromthecontributionsoftheentireCCDRteam,especiallythemanycolleagueswhodevelopedthesectoralroadmapsonwhichthisworkisbased.TheauthorsthankinparticularthepeerreviewersoftheCCDR,includingdozenofWorldBankstaff,NickSternandAmarBhattacharya,whoprovidedinsightfulcommentsatvariousstageofthiswork.WealsothankEtienneEspagne,JeanPisani-Ferry,DilekSevinc,andMarcNolandfortheirhelpfulcommentsonthismanuscript;IoanaMarinescuandStefanoScarpettafortheirdetailedandconstructivediscussionnotes;andallparticipantsofthePIIEconferenceorganizedbyJeanPisani-FerryandAdamS.Posen.Allremainingerrorsandopinionsareourown.TheauthorsthankthemultidonorClimoteSUQQortFeleiIHYforfundingpartofthiswork.1. IntroductionIn2022theWorldBankGrouplaunchedanewcorediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).Todate,38reportscovering42economieshavebeenpublished,withaplantoproducethemforallWorldBankclientcountriesoverthenexttwotofouryears.Seethereportsathttps:/www.worldbank.orv/en/publication/countrv-climate-develoTment-reports.CCDRsaimtohelpcountriesprioritizethemostimpactfulactionstoboostresilienceandadaptationtoclimatechangeandreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswhiledeliveringonbroaderdevelopmentobjectives.MostoftheCCDRsexploreillustrative,ambitiouslow-emissiondevelopmentpathways(figure1).TheapproachesadoptedbyCCDRstoexplorethesepathwaysaretailoredtotheuniquecountrycontexts,includingclimatecommitments,incomelevel,potentialforrenewableenergyorland-basedemissionreductions,anddomesticdevelopmentpriorities.Theyconsiderwhatistechnically,economically,andpoliticallyfeasibleineachcountry.Consequently,theambitionofthescenariosformiti