捕捉碳、捕捉价值—CCS商业模式综述（英）.docx

Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthor'ssoleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsmembers.Copyright©2024OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies(RegisteredCharity,No.286084)Thispublicationmaybereproducedinpartforeducationalornon-profitpurposeswithoutspecialpermissionfromthecopyrightholder,providedacknowledgementofthesourceismade.NouseofthispublicationmaybemadeforresaleorforanyothercommercialpurposewhatsoeverwithoutpriorpermissioninwritingfromtheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies.ISBN978-1-78467-228-7Thecontentsofthispaperaretheauthors'soleresponsibility.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudiesoranyofitsMembers.ContentsContentsiiFiguresiiTablesiiAcknowledgementiiIntroduction11. KeyrisksinvolvedwithCCS12. FrameworkstosupportinvestmentinCCS42.1 Supportivelegalandregulatoryframework42.2 Mechanismsthatallowstackingofrevenues52.3 Diverseapproaches:Experiencesfromdifferentcountries93. CCSBusinessModels163.1 Overviewofbusinessmodeltheory163.2 CCSbusinessmodels16Conclusions23Appendix:Casestudies24FiguresFigure 1: 1.evelizedcostofCO2avoidedbetweenCCSandunabatedrouteacrosssectors2Figure 2: VaryingDegreeofGovernmentInvolvementinCCS10Figure 3: CCSValueChain,OwnershipandFinancing17Figure 4: FullChainModelConcept18Figure 5: PartialChainModel-SingleHubConcept20Figure 6: PartialChainModel-OffshoreCO2TransportConcept21Figure 7: PartialChainModel-FreeMarket22FigureA1:CRCBusinessModel26TablesTable 1: SummaryofhurdlesintheCCSSupplyChain4Table 2: GovernmentfundingsupportmechanismsforCCS6Table 3: CCSSupportMechanismsinUK12Table 4: FullChainModelProjects18Table 5: ExamplesofPartialChain-FreeMarketprojects22TableA1:DenburyBusinessModel25TableA2:CRCBusinessModel26AcknowledgementTheauthorsacknowledgethereviewandvaluableinputsofToby1.ockwoodattheCleanAirTaskForce(CATF)intothiswork.IntroductionBecauseofthescalewithwhichitcouldbeapplied,carboncapture,andstorage(CCS)isidentifiedasacriticaltechnologytoreduceCO2emissionstoachieveglobalclimategoals,Seeforinstance,Bui,M.,Adjiman.C.,Anthony,E.etal.(26moreauthors)(2018)Carboncaptureandstorage(CCS):Thewayforward.EnergyandEnvironmentalScience,11(5).pp.1062-1176.ISSN1754-5692;IPCC,ClimateChange2014:MitigationofClimateChange.WorkingGroupIIIContributiontotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,CambridgeUniversityPress.Particularly,CCScanreduceemissionsfromexistingassets(suchasgasprocessingplants,powerplants,chemicalplants)decreasingtheriskofstrandedassetsinacarbon-constrainedworld;reduceemissionsfromhard-to-abatesectors(suchascementandsteel)wheredecarbonizationtechnologiesarelimitedandhavenotbeenscaledup;enabletheproductionoflow-carbonhydrogenwhichrepresentsakeypillarofdecarbonization;andenabletheremovalofCO2fromtheatmospherewhichisneededtoreachglobalclimateobjectivesviatechnologiessuchasDirectAirCarbonCaptureandStorage(DACCS)andBioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)IEA(2020),EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2020SpecialReportonCarbonCaptureUtilizationandStorage:CCUSincleanenergytransition.ThepotentialofCCSasmitigationtechnologycouldbesubstantial.IntheIEA,sNet-ZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario(NZE)1installedcapacityofcapturedCO2increasesfromthecurrentlevelofaround45MtCO2peryearto1.2GtCO2peryearin2030IEA(2023).Crediblepathsto1.5C.Fourpillarsforactioninthe2020s.,andupto7.6GtCO2in2050IEA(2021),NetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),theroleofCO2captureandstorageisevenmoresignificantthanIEA,sNZEwiththeIPCC,s1.5oCscenarioshavingamedianofaround15GtCO2peryearcapturedin2050(IPCC)(2018),SpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5oC(SR15),.Similarly,theEnergyTransitionCommission(ETC)estimatesthatby2050,between6.9Gt(basecase)and10.1Gt(highdeploymentcase)ofcapturedCO2peryearisrequiredtomeetnetzerotargetsETC(2022),CarbonCapture,Utilisation&StorageintheEnergyTransition:Vitalbut1.imited,July2022,transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/ETC-CCUS_Executive-Summary_final.pdf.AccordingtotheIEA,totalannualcapacitycapturecapacityin2023amountedto45MtCO2andalthoughdeploymentmomentumhasimproved-witharound200newcaptureplantsannouncedtobeinoperationby2030-evenifalloftheseareimplemented,thetotalannualcapacitywillonlyincreasetoroughly400MtCO2by2030,wellbelowthelevelsrequiredtoachieve2050netzeroobjectives8IEA(2023).CCUSpoliciesandbusinessmodels.ThisraisessomefundamentalquestionsaboutthecharacteristicsofCCSprojectswhichmakethemchallengingforfinancingandscaling,eventhoughthetechnologyhasbeenappliedfordecadesparticularlyintheoilandgasindustry.Thispaperseekstoidentifythemaincommercialandnon-commercialrisksassociatedwithCCSandanalyzeincentivemechanisms,regulatoryandlegalframeworks,typesofindustryandownershipstructures,andpublic-privatepartnershipsthatarelikelytoemergeindifferentpartsoftheworldtomitigatetheserisksanden