全球发展中心-世界银行教育贷款的演变：1998-2022（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_2024.docx

CGDCENTERFOPG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENTTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurAbstractIn2011,theWorldBank'sneweducationstrategystressedtheneedtoshiftfocusfromschooling(accessorenrollment)tolearning(testscores),andspecicallytowardsfoundationalskillsacquiredinprimaryschool.Butthisshiftisnotalwayseasytoseeintheactuallendingdata.Codingnewdetailson25yearsofWorldBankeducationloansandgrants,wefindadeclineintheshareoffinancingforprimaryschooloverthewholeperiod,andnoapparentincreaseintheshareofprojectstargeting“quality"or"learning"asopposedto“access"since2011.Incontrast,therehasbeengradualbutsteadygrowthinprojectstargetingearlychildhoodeducation.Thesepattternsappeartoreflectbothsupplyanddemandsidefactors.Onthedemandside,asprimaryenrollmentincreases,countriesshifttheirborrowingtowardearlychildhoodeducation.Onthesupplyside,theWorldBankissignificantlybetteratdeliveringearly-childhoodeducationprogramscomparedtoprojectsfocusedonraisingtestscores,asjudgedbyindependentevaluationscores.EvidenceonthelongtermlearninggainsfrompreschoolsuggestthismaybeamorefeasiblestrategyfortheWorldBanktoachieveitsgoals.WORKINGPAPER685MARCH2024TheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurCenterforGlobalDevelopmentBiniamBedassoandJustinSandefur.2024.uTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation：1998-20227CGDWorkingPaper68E.Washington,DC:CenterfbrGlobalDevelopment.https:/www.cgdev.org/publication/evolution-world-bank-lending-educatton-1998-2022WegratefullyacknowledgeexcellentresearchassistancefromOluwakemiOyewande.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentisgratefulforcontributionsfromtheBill&MelindaGatesFoundationinsupportofthisvvork.CENTERFORG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENT20551.Street,NWFifthFloorWashington,DC200361AbbeyGardensGreatCollegeStreet1.ondonSWlP3SEwww.cgdev.orgCenterforGlobalDevelopment.2024.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentworkstoreduceglobalpovertyandimprovelivesthroughinnovativeeconomicresearchthatdrivesbetterpolicyandpracticebytheworldzstopdecisionmakers.UseanddisseminationofthisWorkingPaperisencouraged;however,reproducedcopiesmaynotbeusedforcommercialpurposes.FurtherusageispermittedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommerdaI4.0International1.icense.TheviewsexpressedinCGDWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtotheboardofdirectors,fundersoftheCenterforGlobalDevelopment,ortheauthors*respectiveorganizations.Contents1. Introduction12. Aquartercenturyofexpansionandoscillatingpriorities43. Reachinghigheroryounge11whatdocountriesborrowforastheyapproachuniversalprimaryenrollment?94. Betteratexpandingaccessforyoungerchildrenthanimprovinglearningforolderones125. Acloserlookatspecificinvestmentsinearlychildhoodeducationandlearningoutcomesprojects176. Whatisinaprojectmaydependonwhohaspreparedit197. Conclusion21References23Appendix24Appendix 1: Methodologicalnote24Appendix 2: Cross-laggedpanelanalysis28Appendix 3: Fullregressionresults(section4)29Figures1. WorldBank'seducationfinancingexpandedsignificantlyoverthepasttwoandahalfdecades42. Theshareoffinancingforprimaryeducationhasdeclinedwhilethesharesofothersub-sectorshavefluctuated53. ExpandingaccesshasbeenthedominantobjectiveofWorldBank'seducationfinancingbetween1998and202264. Theshareofprojectstargeting"quality"or"learning"asopposedto"access”showsnocleartrendoverthemediumterm75. Explicitfocusonlearningoutcomesoftenimpliesmoreprojectactivitiesinvolvingassessments,teachersandcurriculum86. Interventionstargetedatunderrepresentedgroupsandwomenincreaseddramaticallywhileactivitiesenhancingwellbeinginschoolstagnated97. Projectstargetingoutcomesgenerallyreceivelowerperformancescoresthanprojectstargetingoutputs138. Projectswithanexplicitfocusonlearningoutcomesaremostlikelytoberatedasunsuccessful149. ECEprojectsaretheonlycategorywithasignificantlyhigherprobabilityofsuccessthanprimaryeducationprojects1610. TeachersandinclusiondominatethelistofmostcommonactivitiesfinancedthroughECEprojects1811. Assessmentsandcurriculumreformareprominentamongactivitiesfinancedthroughprojectstargetinglearningoutcomes19Tables1. ExpandingaccesstoprimaryschoolingisassociatedwithadeclineinborrowingforprimaryeducationandanincreaseinborrowingforECEandsecondaryeducation102. IdentityoftheWorldBankTask-Team1.eadercanexplainthecompositionofeducationprojectsaswellorbetterthanthecountrytheprojectsarelocatedin20A1.Choiceofprojectsubsectorasafunctionpreviouseducationprojectcyclesinthesamecountry28A2.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonorderedprobitregressionsusing4-scaleoutcomerating)29A3.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)30A4.Projectperformancebysubsector(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)311. IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,asschoolenrollmentsandeducationexpendit