IMF-全球价值链与通货膨胀动态（英）-2024.3_市场营销策划_2024年市场报告-3月第4周_.docx

INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDGlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsVuChau,MarinaConesaMartinez,TaehoonKim,JohnSprayWP/24/62IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024MARWP/24/62©2024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperResearchandWesternHemisphereDepartmentsGlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsPreparedbyVuChau,MarinaConesaMartinez,TaehoonKim,andJohnSpray*AuthorizedfordistributionbyNan1.iandCeydaOnerMarch2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Westudytheinflationaryimpactsofpandemiclockdownshocksandfiscalandmonetarystimulusduring2020-2022usinganovelharmonizeddatasetofsectoralproducerpriceinflationandinput-outputlinkagesformorethan1000sectorsin53countries.TheinflationaryimpactofshocksisidentifiedviaaBartikshift-sharedesign,wheresharesreflecttheheterogeneoussectoralexposuretoshocksandarederivedfromamacroeconomicmodelofinternationalproductionnetwork.Wefindthatpandemiclockdowns,andsubsequentreopeningpolicies,werethemostdominantdriverofglobalinflationinthisperiod,especiallythroughtheirimpactonaggregatedemand.Weprovideadecompositionoflockdownshockbysources,andfindthatbetween20-30percentofthedemandeffectofIockdownZreopeningisduetospilloverfromabroad.Finally,whilefiscalandmonetarypoliciesplayedanimportantroleinpreventingdeflationin2020,theireffectsdiminishedintherecoveryyears.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Chau,V.,ConesaMartinez,M.,Kim,T.,&Spray,J.(2024).GlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamics.IMFWorkingPapers,2024/62JE1.ClassificationNumbers:E31；F10；F41Keywords:Inflation;globalvaluechains;network;pandemic;spillovers.Author'sE-MailAddress:VChaUimf.ora:mconesamartinezimf.orci;tkimimf.orci;isoravimf.ora.AllauthorsareaffiliatedwiththeInternationalMonetaryFund.TheviewsinthispaperarepersonalviewsoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFManagement.WethankChrisPapageorgiou,CeydaOner,PrachiMishra,RodrigoValdes,FilizUnsal,AdrianPeralta-Alva,RuiMano,Niels-JakobHansen,YanCarriere-Swallow,AlasdairStt,AbdoulWane.CianRuane,MarcoArena,andparcipantsattheIMFAPD1WHD.RESDMSeminarSeriesforthoughtfulcommentsandfeedback.WORKINGPAPERSGlobalValueChainsandInflationDynamicsPreparedbyVuChau,MarinaConesaMartinez,TaehoonKim,JohnSpray1IntroductionTheriseofglobalin11ationaftertheCOVID_19pandemiccaughttheworldbysurpriseandpushedinflationtoitshighestlevelsindecades.Whiletraditionaldriversofinflation,suchasloosefiscalandmonetarypolicies,havecontinuedtobecitedasthecausesofhighinflation,therecentinflationaryperiodhasalsocalledintoquestionsthevulnerabilitiesoftheglobalvaluechains（GVCs）todisruptions（causedbylockdowns,disasters,andwars）anditsroleintransmittingshocksacrosscountries.Toproperlydrawlessonsfromthisinflationaryperiodandensurecostlymistakesarenotrepeatedinthefuture,itisimportantthentoknowtherelativeimportanceofdifferentinflationdrivers.Inthispaper,weprovideanovelharmonizeddatasetofsectoralproducerprice,mergedwithinput-outputlinkagesandshocks,formorethan100Osectorsin53countries,andaframeworktoidentifyinflationaryimpactofdifferentin11ationdriversusingthesectoraldata.Identifyingtheinflationaryimpactofshocksisempiricallychallenging.First,aggregateconsumerpriceindicesarefunctionsofmanyconcurrentshocks-demandandsupply,domesticandforeignspillovers-andrelyingonlyonthisdatawouldnotprovidesufficientstatisticalpowerforidentification.ThisisevidentintheUSinflationdebate,wheredifferentpolicymakersandscholarsattributethehighinflationratetodifferentdrivers.Second,thesameshockcanappeartobebothausupplyshock”andaudemandshock,jthataffectinflationinopposingways.1.ockdownpoliciescanbeanegativesupplyshockthatincreasesthepricelevelaslimitedproductiondepletesinventoriesandmakesgoodsscarce.Atthesametime,lockdownscanbethoughtofanegativedemandshockthatdepressesprices,asworkersreceivelowerincomeanddemandlessgoodsandservices.Furthermore,lockdownscanbepredominantlyademandshockforonecountryandasupplyshockforanother,manifestingthroughhigherimportedinputprices.Thus,studyingtheinflationaryimpactofpandemiclockdownrequirestakingaholistic,structuredviewofhowlockdowncanaffecttheunitsofobservationofinterest.Inthispaper,wetrytoovercometheaforementionedempiricalchallengesandstudythedriversofglobalinflationusingasetofBartik（1991）shift-shareinstrumentsderivedfromageneralequilibriummodelwithinternationalproductionnetwork.Ourempiricalworkhastwocomponents.First,wecollectandharmonizePPIinflationdataforacross-sectionof1134internationalproductionsectorsduringtheperiod20202022,ensuringconsistencywithinternationalinput-outputdataandotherrelevantdatasets.Second,wecons