人民大2024管理学原理（第10版）英文教师手册robbinscoulter_fom10_im_qm.docx

QUANTITATIVEMODU1.EQUANTITATIVEDECISION-MAKINGAIDSinthestudyofthisniule,theauthorsin(r<xlucepayoffmatrices,decisiontrees,breakevenanalysis.Fatioanalysis,linearprogramming,queuingtheory,andeconomicorderquantity.hePUrPoSeofeachmethodistoprovidemanagerswithatltoassistinthedecisionmakingprocessandtoprovidemorecompleteinformationtomakebetter-infb11neddecisions.PayofTMatrices1. Uncertaintyisasituationinwhichthedecisionmakerisnotcertainandcanoievenmakereasonableprobabilityestimatesconcerningtheoutcomesofalternatives.2. Thechoiceoaltemaliveisinfluencedby!heIiinileda11)unlOfinfDrnlaIionavailableto(hedecisionmaker.3. Itesalsoinfluencedbythepsychologicalorientationofthedecisionmaker.4. ExampleofVisaInternationala.Fourpossiblestrategiesandtheresultingprofit.(SeeExhibitQM1.)h. Anoptimisticmanagerwillfollowanaximaxchoice,maximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff.i. APeSSimishemanagerwillpursueamaximinchoice,maximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff.j. Themanagerwhodesirestominimizethemaximum44regretMwilloptfora州加加IarChOice.(SeeExhibitQM-2.)DecisionTrees1. Decisiontreesareausefulwayioanalyzehiring,marketing,investment,equipnenlpurchases,pricing,andsimilardecisionsthatinvolveaprogressionofdecisions.2. They'recalleddecisiontreesbecause,whendiagrammed,theylookalotlikeatreewithbranches.3. ExampleofHarringlon,asiteselectionsupervisorofabookslorc(SeeExhibilQM-3).a.Theleaseonthecompany'sstoreinWinterPark,Floridaisexpiring,andthepropertyownerhasdecidednottorenewit.FollowingtheapproachusedforDecisionPointI,shecouldcalculatethep11)filpotentialbyextendingtheb11nchesonthetreeandcalculatingexpectedvaluesforthevariousoptions.Break-evenAnalysis1. Break-evenanalysisisatechniqueforidentifying(hepointatwhichtotalrevenueisjustsufficienttocovertotalcosts.(SeeExhibitQM-4.)2. TocomputeIhCbreak-evenpoint(BE),themanagerneedstoknowtheunitpriceOftheProdUclbeingsold(P).thevariablecostperunit(VC),andthetotalfixedcosts(TFC).3. Anorganizationbreaksevenwlwnitstotalrevenueisjusenough(oequalitstotalcosts.4. Totalcosthastwoparts:afixedcomponentandavariablecomponent.5. Thebreak-evenpointcanbecomputedgraphicallyorbyusingthefollowingformula:BE=TFCZ(P-VC)6. Asaplanningtool,break-evenanalysiscouldhelpmanagementsetsalesobjectives.7. Break-evenanalysiscanalsotellmanagementhowmuchvolumehasioincreaseinordertobreak-evenifthecompanyiscurrentlyo>eratingataloss,orhowmuchvolumetheycanaffordtoloseands(illbreak-evenifthecompanyiscurrentlyoperatingprofitably.RatioAnalysis1. RatioanalysisinvolvestheuseofSignificanlfiguresf11)nIhCfinuncialSlaleinentKandexpressesthemasapercentageorratio.2. ThispracticeallowsmanagerscocomparecuentfinancialperformancewiththatOfPreVioUSPeriodSandotherorganizationsinthesameindustry.3. SomeothemoreusefulratiosevaluateIiquidily,leverage,operations,an<lprofitability.4. TheseratiosaresummarizedinExhibitQM-5.a. 1.iquidityisameasureotheorganization'sabilitytoconvertassetsintocashinorderto11>eetilsdebtobligations.b. 1.everageratiosrefertotheuseofborrowedfundscooperateandexpandanorganization.c. Operatingratiosdescribehowefficientlymanagementisusingtheorganization'sresources.d. Profilabilityratiosmeasureanorganizationseffectivenessandefficiency.1.inearProgramming1. 1.inearprogrammingisamathematicaltechniquethatsolvesresourceallocationproblems.2. 1.inearp11>gramningcannotbeappliedtoallresourceallocationsitua(ions.3. Besidesrequiringlimitedresourcesandtheobjectiveofoptimization,itrequiresthattherebealternativewaysofcombiningresourcestoproduceanumberofoutputmixes.4. Alinearrelationshipbetweenvariablesisalsonecessary,whichmeansthatachangeinonevariablewillbeaccompaniedbyanexactlyproportionalchangeintheother.AnexampleisgiveninExhibitQM-6.6. ManydifferentIypesofproblemscanbesolvedwithlinearprogramming.Forexample:a. SelectingIransportaiionroutesthatminimizeshippingcosts.b. AllocatingalimitedadvertisingbudgetamongvariousPrOdUClbrands.c. Makingtheoptimumassignmentofpersonnelamongprojects.d. Determininghowmuchofeachproduct(omakeWilhalimitednumberofresources.QueuingTheOry1. Queuingtheoryhelpssolveproblemsthatinvolvebalancing(hecostofhavingawaitinglineagainstthecostofservicetomaintainthatline.2. Thesetypesofcom11>nsituationsincludedetermininghowmanygaspumpsareneededatgasstations,tellersatbankwindows,tolltakersattollbooths,orcheckinlinesatairlineticketcounters.3. ManagementwantstohaveasfewstationsOPentominimizecostswithouttestingthepatienceofiscustomers.EconomicOrderQuantityModel1. Afixed-pointreorderingsystemisamethodforasystemto"flag"theneedtoreorderinventoryatsomeprc-cstablishedpointintheprocess.2. Theobjectiveistominimizeinventor)-Carryingcostswhileatthesametimelimitingtheprobabilityofstockingoutoftheinventor)fitem.3. TheEconomicOrderQuantityM<lelseeksIobalancethecostsinvolvedinorderingandCaiTyinginvcntorj,thusminimizingtotalcostsassociatedwithearningandorderingcosts.(SeeExhibitQM-8.)4. TheEOQmodelassumesthatdemandandleadtimesa