某咨询银行业发展能否超越兼并收购.docx

某咨询银行业发展能否超越兼并收购USbankswillneedtolookbeyondmergersforgrowth.Betterearningswillhavetobewonfromimprovedvaluepropositionsandproductivity.KEVINP.COYNEzLENNYT.MENDONCA,ANDGREGORYWILSONTheMcKinseyQuarterly,2004Number1Theprimaryrationalebehindthewaveofmergersinthe1990soachievesubstantialeconomiesofscalebyexploitingtechnologyandderegulation税snaturallyweakening.Formostlargebanks,furtherexpansionwon挟necessarilyyielddramaticscale-basedsavingsinsystemsandproduct-developmentcosts.Soalthoughmergerswillcontinuetotakeplace,opportunitiestocreatesubstantialvaluehavediminishedandrelativelyfewerdealswillpackthepunchofthe1990s.Executivesoflargebanksmustlookfornewwaystoincreaseearnings.Untilrecently,thesolutionwasfallinginterestrates,whichfueledunprecedentedprofitsfrommortgagesandcreditcards.1Butwithratesbeginningtorise,bankswillhavetolookelsewhere.Morecompellingvaluepropositionsarerequiredifbanksaretocompetewiththenonbanksandspecialiststhathaveflourishedinmanymarkets.Likethebestretailers,banksmustdifferentiatethemselvesbyunderstandingtheneedsoftheircustomersandgivingthosecustomersadistinctiveexperience.Banksshouldalsoboosttheirperformancetheold-fashionedway,byimprovingproductivity窠omethingthatwillbecomevitalastheirpaymentsbusinesses,representingasubstantialshareofindustryprofitsandoperatingexpenses,shrinkwiththefallinguseofchecks.Tosucceedinthesetasks,banksmustinnovateintheirformats,theircustomertargeting,theirapproachtolendingandassetmanagement,theiroperations,andtheiruseofelectronicpayments.Thisagendaischallenging,anditcallsforskillsbeyondthose窠uchasidentifyingandvaluingacquisitiontargetsanddrivingintegrationShatservedexecutivessowellintherecentpast.Significantchangeslieaheadformanagersworkingtowardanewsetofperformancepriorities.THEOLDGAMEWINDSDOWNAlthoughthebankingindustry担structureandregulatoryframeworkwillpermitmoremergersinthefuture,thereducedpotentialforsynergiesmeansthatCEOswhomakedealstheirprimarystrategicfocuscouldbedisappointedbytheresults.Someobviouspairingswillrealizeworthwhilecostsavings,especiallyamongsecond-andthird-tierbanks,butformostlargeinstitutionstheopportunitiesforconsolidationarenotwhattheywereafewyearsago.Duringthe1990s,theeconomicrationaleformergerswasindisputable.Enormousefficiencygapsbetweentheacquirerandtheacquiredoftencreatedcostandrevenuesynergiesrangingfrom30to100percentofaseller担netincome.2Newtechnologymademanyoftheseefficiencygainspossiblebyfacilitatingtheconsolidationofbranches.Inaddition,theRiegle膊ealActof1994,whichallowedbankholdingcompaniestoacquirebanksinanystate,openedthedoortopairings窠uchasthosebetweenBankofAmericaandNationsBank,andNorwestandWellsFargohatpreviouslywouldhavebeendifficultorimpossible.Sosuccessfulwasthiswaveofmergersthattheindustryprogressedtowardanaturalendgameinwhichahandfulofnationwidebanksbegantoemerge.Althoughcurbedbyaregulationlimitinganindividualbank担shareofUSdepositsto10percentofthetotal(which,withantitrustsafeguards,ensuredthatthousandsofcommunitybankscontinuedtothrive),thetopteninstitutionsincreasedtheirshareofUSdepositsfrom27percentin1994to44percentin2002(Exhibit1).ConsolidationcontinuesShareoftotalassetsheldbyUSCommerciaIZsavingsbanksbysize,%Soiree：FDIC;SheshunoWInformettonServices;SNLFinancialButthelargerbankshavepickedmostoftheopportunitiesfromconsolidation.Today担possiblecombinationsamongthelargerinstitutionspresentfewergeographicoverlaps.Whilescaleeconomiesarealwayshelpful,mostleadingbanksarealreadybigenoughtosupportthesystems,branding,andproduct-developmentcostsofthenextfewyears.Tobesure,bankmergersarenotathingofthepast.Underthe10percentdepositceiling,thereisstillroomforthetop20or25playerstomakesubstantialacquisitionsandfortwoorthreemovesthatwouldcreatethehandfuloftrulynationalbanksanticipatedwiththeRiegle脖ealActpassage.Moreover,manymiddle-tierregionalbankshavesurvivedandprosperedandwillprobablyconsolidatefurther.Therationalesupportingbig-bankmergersduringthe1990sthusstillapplies,particularlygiventhegeographicconcentrationofmanyregionalbanks:atleasteightmiddle-tierbanksdobusinessinAlabama,Georgia,andTennessee,forexample.Yettheeconomicsmeanthatmanybigdealswillbemorelikelytoexploitreducedvaluations,opportunitiesfortransferringskills,orthepossibilityofexpandingintonewbusinessesorgeographiesthanthecostsynergiesthatoftenjustifiedsignificantpremiumsduringthe1990s.Bothmanagerialcapabilitiesandeconomiesofscopewillbedriversofwell-receiveddeals.SoM&A,whilestillalogicalpartofsomebanks?strategiesintheyearsahead,willbealessprominentsourceofvaluethanitwasintherecentpast.INPURSUITOFGROWTHTheconsolidationofthe1990senabledmanyfinancialinstitutionstoexpandtheirbookvaluewithoutsignificantorganicgrowth.Thisdevelopmenthelpedlargebanks,whichfor25yearshadlostgroundinmarketaftermarkettononbanksandspecialists,suchasCharlesSchwabandMerrillLynch,thatofferedamoreattractivevaluepropositionandbetterservice.Comparedwiththeseinnovators,bankswereslowtochange,partlybecauseinthedayswhencompetitionwasregionaltherewardsweresmalleranditoftenpaidtowa