2022净零热储能长时储能加速能源系统脱碳英文版.docx

McKinsey& CompanyLDESLONG DURATION ENERGY STORAGE COUNCILNet-zeroheat1.ongDurationEnergyStoragetoaccelerateenergysystemdecarbonizationPublishedinNovember2022bytheLDESCouncil.Copiesofthisdocumentareavailableuponrequestorcanbedownloadedfromourwebsite:.ThisreportwasauthoredbytheLDESCouncilincollaborationwithMcKinsey&Companyasknowledgepartner.Thisworkisindependent,reflectstheviewsoftheauthors,andhasnotbeencommissionedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution.Theauthorsofthereportconfirmthat:1 .Therearenorecommendationsand/oranymeasuresand/ortrajectorieswithinthereportthatcouldbeinterpretedasstandardsorasanyotherformof(suggested)coordinationbetweentheparticipantsofthestudyreferredtowithinthereportthatwouldinfringeEUcompetitionlaw;and2 Itisnottheirintentionthatanysuchformofcoordinationwillbeadopted.Whilethecontentsofthereportanditsabstractimplicationsfortheindustrygenerallycanbediscussedoncetheyhavebeenprepared,individualstrategiesremainproprietary,confidential,andtheresponsibilityofeachparticipant.Participantsareremindedthat,aspartoftheinvariablepracticeoftheLDESCouncilandtheEUcompetitionlawobligationstowhichmembershipactivitiesaresubject,suchstrategicandconfidentialinformationmustnotbesharedorcoordinated-includingaspartofthisreport.ContentsPreface4Executivesummary8Acronyms131. TheroleofLDESinnet-zeroenergy142. TESasanenablertodecarbonizingheat183. LDEStechnologiescostandcompetitiveness244. TESbusinesscases345. Anintegratedenergysystemperspective486. UnlockingtheTESopportunity54Conclusion57Appendix A: Methodologyandassumptions58Appendix B: StateoftheTESindustry67Acknowledgements69PrefaceWemustcapturethenarrowwindowofopportunitytoachieveanet-zeroenergysystem.Thedecarbonizationoftheenergysectorneedstoacceleratetobecomealignedwithanet-zeropathwaythatlimitsglobalwarmingtobelow1.5oC.However,achievingnet-zeroemissionsby2050requiresmassivedevelopmentofrenewables,newandreinforcedinfrastructure,andtheadoptionofnewcleantechnologies.Manychallengescompoundinthistransition,assupplychainsneedtobescaledup,end-useequipmentneedstobeadapted,andinfrastructureneedstobedeployedandreinforced(forexample,transmissionanddistributionelectricitygridexpansionscantakeupto15yearstorealize).Immediateactionisrequiredtomeetemission-reductiontargets,limittheimpactofclimatechange,andmaximizetheopportunitiesahead.Asoutlinedinthe2021LDESNet-zeropowerreport,1long-durationenergystorage(LDES)offersalow-costflexibilitysolutiontoenableenergysystemdecarbonization.LDES, Whenever LDES is mentioned as a technology group, it is defined as a technology storing energy for ten or more hours, as per ARPA-E'sdefinition. When LDES is mentioned in analysis or modeling, the actual duration length is always specified, in line with NRELs recommendation.canbedeployedtostoreenergyforprolongedperiodsandcanbescaledupeconomicallytosustainenergyprovisionformultiplehours(tenormore),days(multidaystorage),months,andseasons.LDEScanstoreenergyinvariousforms,includingmechanical,thermal,electrochemical,orchemicalandcancontributesignificantlytothecost-efficientdecarbonizationoftheenergysystem.Furthermore,ithelpsaddressmajorenergytransitionchallengessuchassolarandwindenergysupplyvariability,gridinfrastructurebottlenecks,oremissionsfromheatgeneration.ThisreportpresentsthelatestviewontheroleofLDESinhelpingachieveNet-zeropowerandheatby2050, It is assumed that the power sector achieves net-zero emissions by 2040, and other sectors by 2050.focusingonthepotentialroleofthermalenergystorage(TES)inrealizingnet-zeroheat.ItbuildsonpriorLDESCouncilresearchandanalysisandpresentsupdatedcostperspectivesbasedondatafromLDESCouncilmembers.Asafollow-uptopreviousLDESCouncilpublications,thisreportfocusesontheheatsector,apivotalcomponentinachievingglobaldecarbonizationandclimatetargets.Accordingly,italsofocusesonaparticularsetofLDEStechnologies,TES,whichcanstoreheat,decarbonizeheatapplications,andintegraterenewablesinthissectorandthebroaderenergysystem.Thisreportalsohighlightshowanintegratedsystemapproachisimperativetocost-efficientlydecarbonizingenergysystems. The definition of energy system used in this report includes all components related to the production, nversion, and use of electrical energy, heat, and hydrogen. The electrification of the transport sector is included indirectly in the final electricity demand scenario from the McKinsey Global Energy Perspective.Electricity,heat,andhydrogenarebecomingincreasinglyinterconnected,drivenbythegrowinguptakeofrenewableenergyandaccesstotechnologiesthatintegratethem,suchasheatpumpsandLDES(Exhibit1).Thiscreatestheneedtolookattheintegratedecosystemratherthantheseparateenergysectorstojointlyinformcost-optimizedenergyinfrastructuredevelopments.Theanalysesinthisreporttakeinterdependenciesbetweenpower,heat,andhydrogenintoaccounttoassessthecost-optimizedmixofflexibilitysolutionsneededfortheheatandpowersectors.Ithigh