Kaplan考试和QBank二级（考友版）：Heckpoint考试1：学习环节 （题目+解析）2-8.docx

CFALevel11Questions#1-6of42Questions1-6relatetoGoldensandJewelr¾LtdIntroductionRajRShSinghistheCFOofGoldensandJewelry,Ltd,aLondon-basedretailercffinejewelryandwatches.Singhhasnoticedthatthepriceofgoldhasbeguntoincrease.IfeconomicactivitycontinuestopickURthepriceofgoldislikelytoaccelerateitsrateofincreaseasboththelevelofdemandandinflationratesincrease.ImplicationsofRisingGoldPriceSinghhasbecomeConCernedaboutthecostimplicationsfBGoldensandifgoldpricescontinuetoriseHehasrequestedameetingwithAnitaBiscayne,GoldensancTsCOO.Inprepai'ationforthemeeting,SinghaskedoneofhisstallYasunobuHara,topreparearegressionanalysiscomparingthepriceofgoldtoeaveragecostofGoldensanrfSPUrChaSeSoffinishedgold方Weiry.HaraprovidestheregressionresultsasshowninExhibitLExhibit1:1979-2009AnnualData(31Observations)VariableCoefficientStandardErroroftheCoefficientInterceptIL067.29Costfgold2.8970.615standarderroroftheforecast=117.8Exhibit2:PartialStUdenfSt-diStributionTable1.evelofSignificanceforOne-TailedTestdfQlOOQ050tt025QOloQ005Q00051.evelofSignificanceforTwo-TailedTestdfQ200ooQ050a020QOlOQOOl29L3111.69920452.46227563659301.3101.69720422.4572750&64631L3091.6962.040245327442636ReviewingtheregressionresultsBiscaynebecomesconcernedabouttheimplicationsforthecostoffinishedjewelrytoGoldensandiftheprice Biscayne worries that the regression model is misspecified because it does not include a variable to measure the cost of the highly specialized Uibor used by m anufacturing jewelers. She poits out that the effect of omitting an i mportat variable in a regression analysis is that the regression coefficients will be unbiased and inconsistent Singh adds that another com mon consequence of misspecifying a regression analysis is creating undesired stationarity.Multiple RegressionHara conducts a series f regression analyses using all possible combinations of the suggested independent VariableS based on their average quarterly values. He returns with the following regression results as shown in Exhibit 3 for the equation which uses all suggested independent variable*Exhibit 3: 1999-2009 Quarterly Data (44 Observatis)goldcontinuestoriseToremainprofitable,thecostoffinishedjewelryshouldnotexceed$2,000.RegressionConcernsOverallConcernsSingh'sprincipalconcernabouttheregressionisWhetherthetimeperiodchosenisagoodpredictorofthecu11'entsituation*Hemakesthefollowingstatement：Statement1:WemayhaveaproblemwithparameterInstabilityiftherelationshipbetweengoldpricesandjewelrycostshaschangedoverthepast30yearsSinghalsofocusesonthevalueoftheslopecoefficientHeexpectedittobe40basedonhisexperienceintheindustry,Haracomputestheappropriateteststatisticandreportsthefollowing:Statement2:Wefailtorejectthenullhypothesisthattheslopecoefficientisequalto40atthe5%levelofsignificance.Testingfa、HeteroskedasticityBiscayneremarksthatthedramaticincreaseinthepriceleveloverthepast30yearsleadshertosuspectHeteroskedasticityintheregressionresultsShesuggeststoSinghthattheyshouldconductaBreusch-Paganchi-squaretestforHeteroskedasticitybycalculatingthefollowingteststatistic：n×R2withkdegreesoffiedomwhere:n=numberofobservationsR'=RJoftheregressionofjewelrypricesongoldpricesk二numherofindependentVciriables"odelMisspeciiicationBiscayneandSinghhavevariousviewsonthepotentialfa、modelmisspecificationandtheeffectofanysuchmisspecificatbii.Intercept-393.7Goldprice714.5Silverprice1.27.8Platinumprice3.53.1Laborcosts0.822.4GDP(EU)0.0002745.7GDP(MiddleEast)0.0000493.6Personalincome(El)0.0003142.1Personalincome(MiddleEast)0098762.2IndependentVariablesR2:Q55Coefficient IrStatisticDurbin-Watson:389HaraisconcernedabouttheequationdescribedinExhibit3Hemakesthefollowingstatement:Statement3:Themodelappearstosufferfrommultico11inearit¾Droppingoneormoreindependentvariableswillincreasethecoefficientofdetermination.Biscaynerespondswiththefollowingstatement:Statement 4:AnautocorrelationproblemcanbeaddressedbyusingtheHansenmethodtoadjustthe代Exhibit4:PartialDurbirrWatsonTableCriticalValuesfartheDurbiirWatsonStatistic(=Q05)K=3K=4K三5di%Lidu九39l+33L66L27L721.22L79401.341.661.291.721.231.7945L381.67L341.721.291.78Question#1of42QUestionID:1214287Theperouncepriceofgoldthatcorrespondstothe$2,OOOcostoffinishedjewelryisclosestto：A)$687.B)$712C)$3,240.ExplanationCostoffinishedjewelry=ILo6+2897×(costofgold)$2,000=11.06+2897×fcostofgold)Priceofgold=($2,000-11.06)/2897=$686.55ForFurtherReference:(StudySession2,Module4.3,LOS4e)SchweserNotes,Book1page126CFA«ProgTciniCurriculum,VolumeLpage250Question#2of42Question11):1214288AreSingh(Statement1)andHara(Statement2)correctorincorrectregardingtheusefulnessofregressionresultsdescribedinExhibit1andthevalueofeslopecoefficient?A)BotharecorrectB)Oneiscorrect,theotherisin