国家经济和社会研究所-英国2021年秋季经济展望：复苏：停滞而非飙升（英）-2021-55正式版.docx

NationalInstitute of Economic and Social ResearchNationalInstituteUKEconomicOutlookRecovery:stallingnotsoaringNationalInstituteUKEconomicOutlook-Autumn2021ISSN2753-9350©NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch,2021NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchStLondonSW1P3HET:+44(0)2072227665E:enquiriesniesr.ac.ukW:niesr.ac.ukRegisteredcharityno.306083NATIONALINSTITUTEOFECONOMICANDSOCIALRESEARCHOFFICERSOFTHEINSTITUTEPRESIDENTSIRPAULTUCKERcouncilOfmanagementPROFESSORNICHOLASCRAFTSCBE(CHAIR)TeraAllasCBEStephenKingAlexBakerKeithMackrellJennyBatesNevilleManuelProfessorPhillipBrownProfessorJillRuberyNeilGaskellRomeshVaitilingamMBEProfessorSirDavidGreenawayDIRECTORPROFESSORJAGJITS.CHADHAOBE2DeanTrenchStreet,SmithSquareLondon,SW1P3HECARDIFFUNIVERSITYPrifyscolOfRDW印 UniversityAdarSmTheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchisanindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevisionofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocialforcesthataffectpeople'slives,andthewaysinwhichpolicycanbringaboutchange.AndthisremainscentraltoNIESR,sethos.Wecontinuetoapplyourexpertiseinbothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocialissuestocurrentdebatesandtoinfluencepolicy.TheInstituteisindependentofallpartypoliticalinterests.EconomicandSocialResearchCouncilContentsForeword3NationalInstituteUKEconomicOutlook-Autumn202141UKEconomicOutlook:ShortagesandfiscaltighteningthreateneconomicrecoveryfromCovid-196Economicbackgroundandoverviewoftheforecast6Economicactivity8BoxA:TheEuropeanUnion'sCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism:levellingtheEUcarbonplayingfield11Households13BoxB:FurloughandhouseholdfinancialdistressduringtheCovid-19pandemic-insightsforfuturelockdowns14BoxC:Wagepressures:aperspectivefromonlinejobadvertisements17Firms20Trade22Fiscalpolicy23Inflationandmonetarypolicy25BoxD:Thenewemploymenttax292UKRegionalOutlook:Autumn202133RegionalOutlook34GVA,(un)employmentandlabourproductivity35Skillsandlabour-marketinterventions35Reducingregionaldisparities38HouseholdincomesacrosstheUK,sdevolvednationsandEngIand1Sregions39BoxE:DistributionalimpactsofCovid-19andpotentialforpolicyintervention4145AppendixForeword:RipitupandstartagainTheBritisheconomy'srelativedeclinehasbeenhighlightedbyasequenceofeventsthatwillbeseenashistoricallyimportant.ThefinancialcrisislaidtorestournotionthatitwassufficienttobuildanationalplanonaburgeoningCityofLondon.ThereferendumonBrexittoldusthatopennesstoEuropeantradeandmigrationalonedidnotallowoureconomicstructurestodeliversustainedincreasesinprosperityacrossthecountry.Lifeunderthepandemichasfurtherexposedtheneedtoredevelopourpublicprovisionofhealth,socialcareandtransportinfrastructure,aswellasareconsiderationoftherevenuestofinancethat.Whileitisnotthedutyofthestatetoreplaceprivatesectoractivityandimpingeonitsplansundulywithtaxes,thestate(localandnational)doeshavetheobligationtosupportandenabletheprivatesectortogeneratejobsandprosperityacrossthenation,aswellasprovidepublicgoods.Inthoseobligationsithasrepeatedlyfailed.Aswereachtheendof2021,weareemergingfromtheCovid-19cloud,albeitgingerly.However,itisbynomeanscertainthatwewillavoidreturningtosomerestrictionsonourmobility;certainly,thethreatthatwemightdosowillntinuetoaffecthouseholdandbusinessconfidence.Economicactivityisfacingapersistentnegativesupplyshock,whichmeansthatwecannotproduceallthegoodsandserviceswewouldwantatprevailingprices.Alongsidethat,thereismuchpent-updemandassignalledbythestockofhouseholdsavings.Twofundamentaljudgementsintheshortrunarehowquicklythesedisruptionstodomesticandglobalsupplysortthemselvesoutandhowquicklyhouseholdsreturntotheirmorenormalpropensitiestosave.IfwethinkthedisruptionswillironoutbyChristmasandconsumerswillquicklyrundowntheirsavings,wemightwellthinkthatourproblemsarebehindus.However,ifwethinkthatdisruptionswillpersistandfirmsandhouseholdswillcontinuetoactwithcaution,wemaybefacedwitheconomicstagnation.AsthisOutlookmakesclear,webelievethatshortrunsupplyproblemsfacedbytheUKwillpersistandarelikelytobeexacerbatedbyBrexit.ThisisbecauseourexitfromtheEuropeanUnionhasactedtoreducethepooloflabour,contributedtolowerlevelsoffirminvestmentthanmightotherwisehavebeenthecase,andledtosomecontractioninthesizeofourtradedsector.Ofcoursethesqueezeonlesswell-offhouseholdsisnowwelloveradecadeoldlong,predatingBrexit,andhasprimarilyresultedfromaninabilitytoaddressourproductivityshortfall,whichisourlongtermsupplyconstraint.Inthissensedemandandsupplyaremeeteachotheratthesamepointwherelowskillsandlowwagesareassociatedwithlowlevelsofdemandandconstrainedsupply.Ourproblemsarenotinsurmountablebutpromptandconsistentinterventionsbythestatetosupporttraining,labourmobility,housebuildingmayacttoalleviatesomeofthecostsofadjustmenttothathighwage-highskilleconomyforwhichweyearn.Structurally,wethinktherearelargeshortfallsinthecapitalstock-human,physicalan