国际战略研究中心-制造商的困境：大流行世界中的再就业和恢复力（英）-2021.11-36正式版.docx

NOVEMBER2021TheManufacturer9sDilemmaReshoringandResiliencyinaPandemicWorldAUTHORSWilliamReinschEmilyBensonJasmineLimAnthonyHokayemSarahMortensenAReportoftheCSISSchollChairinInternationalBusinessCENTERFORSTRATEGICftINTERNATIONALSTUDIESNOVEMBER2021TheManufacturerDilemmaReshoringandResiliencyinaPandemicWorldAUTHORSWilliamReinschEmilyBensonJasmineLimAnthonyHokayemSarahMortensenCSISAReportoftheCSISSchollChairinInternationalBusinessCENTERFORSTRATEGICaINTERNATIONALSTUDIESAboutCSISTheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)isabipartisan,nonprofitpolicyresearchorganizationdedicatedtoadvancingpracticalideastoaddresstheworld,sgreatestchallenges.ThomasJ.PritzkerwasnamedchairmanoftheCSlSBoardofTrusteesin2015,succeedingformerU.S.senatorSamNunn(D-GA),Foundedin1962,CSISisledbyJohnJ.Hamre,whohasservedaspresidentandchiefexecutiveofficersince2000.CSIS,spurposeistodefinethefutureofnationalsecurity.Weareguidedbyadistinctsetofvaluesnonpartisanship,independentthought,innovativethinking,cross-disciplinaryscholarship,integrityandprofessionalism,andtalentdevelopment.CSIS'svaluesworkinconcerttowardthegoalofmakingreal-worldimpact.CSISscholarsbringtheirpolicyexpertise,judgment,androbustnetworkstotheirresearch,analysis,andrecommendations.Weorganizeconferences,publish,lecture,andmakemediaappearancesthataimtoincreasetheknowledge,awareness,andsalienceofpolicyissueswithrelevantstakeholdersandtheinterestedpublic.CSIShasimpactwhenourresearchhelpstoinformthedecisionmakingofkeypolicymakersandthethinkingofkeyinfluencers.Weworktowardavisionofasaferandmoreprosperousworld.CSISdoesnottakespecificpolicypositions;accordingly,allviewsexpressedhereinshouldbeunderstoodtobesolelythoseoftheauthor(s).©2021bytheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,llrightsreserved.AcknowledgmentsTheauthorswouldliketothankSeanAiTieta-KennaandWillO,Neil,formerresearchinternswiththeSchollChair,fortheirresearchsupportandcontributions.ThisreportwasfundedbygeneroussupportfromtheAlcoaFoundation.CenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies1616RhodeIslandAvenue,NWWashington,D.C.20036202-887-02001www.csis.orgContentsIntroduction11Resiliency,Reshoring,andNearshoring32IndustryPrimers:TransformersandHVACs6VJhatAreTransformers?6WhatAreHVACs?83IndustrySupplyChains10Transformers10HVACs114Covid-19SupplyChainChallenges13LaborShortages13ReducedAccesstoConsumers14RisingPricesandShortagesofSteel,Copper,andOtherRawMaterials15TransportationComplicationsandBottlenecks16ChangingDemand165GovernmentApproachesandPolicies18CleanEnergyInitiatives:ExecutiveBranch18LegislativeBranch19NationalSecurityandTradeBarriers20Conclusion23AbouttheAuthors26IntroductionromtheRustBelttotheWhiteHouse,policymakers,manufacturers,andconsumersaredebatingthemeritsofreshoring,nearshoring,andbuildingmoreresilientsupplychains.)ThepreviousadministrationmaintainedasharpfocusonstrengtheningmanufacturingintheUnitedStatesthroughtraderemedies,tariffprotection,andreshoringmeasures.PresidentJoeBidenhaslargelyfollowedsuit,maintainingmanyofthepreviousadministration'stradepolicieswhileoutlininghisownadministration'scommitmentto“BuyAmeriCarrandbuildmoreresilientsupplychains.2IntheyearsbetweenWorldWarIandWorldWarII,theriseofnationalistideologiesandcrushingeconomicconditionsusheredinaneraoftradeprotectionism.Intheinterwaryears,tradeliberalizationthathadacceleratedthrough1913essentiallyhalted,dismantlingpreviouslyestablishedtradingnetworks.However,theseprotectionistdynamicsshiftedwiththesigningoftheReciprocalTradeActof1934.whichinstitutionalizedtariffreductionreforms.?Then,the1944BrettonWoodsAgreementattheendofWorldWarIIlaidthegroundworkforthepostwareconomicworldthroughtheestablishmentoftheWorldBank,theInternationalMonetaryFund,andeventuallytheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTradeanditssuccessororganization,theWorldTradeOrganization,whichwasintendedtosen,eastheglobalpromoteroftradeliberalization.Duringthistime,theworldtradingsystemwitnessedareductionintariffsandapushtowardregionalandmultilateraltradeagreements.Withnewlyrealizedaccesstoforeignmarkets,multinationalfirms-especiallythoseinthemanufacturingsector-initiatedatrendofoffshoring,whichallowedfirmstopursuelowercostsabroadandachievehigherproductivitygains.Astradeliberalizationexpanded,companiesbegantoreexaminetheirproductionprocessesanddisaggregatetheminordertotakeadvantageoflowerrelativepricesandhighproductivityabroadinabidtoreducetheoverallcostsofgoodsproduction.Significantdeclinesintransportationandcommunicationcostswereinstrumentalinthisdevelopment.Theyenabledcompaniestodevelopsupplychainsthattakeadvantageoflowcostsaroundtheworldtoproducepartsandcomponentsindifferentlocationsandthenassembletheminathirdlocation.Internationalcompanies,particularlywithinthemanufacturingsector,benefittedfromdecreasedproductioncostsandcheaperlabor,butnotwithoutacosttoU.S.workers.Followinga30-yeartrendofoffshoring,somefirmshavebegunrenationalizingtheirproductionchains,par