巴塞罗那国际事务研究中心-欧盟南部地区城市的气候弹性.欧盟绿色协议的机遇（英）-2021.11-38正式版.docx

ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbourhoodOpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealThestudyispublishedintheframeworkoftheCascadingClimateImpacts(CASCADES)Project(2019-2023),fundedthroughtheEuropeanCommission'sHorizon2020programme,seewww.cascades.eu.ClimateResilienceinCitiesoftheEU,sSouthernNeighbourhood:OpportunitiesfortheEUGreenDealHannahAbdullah1KarimElgendyandHanneKnaepenNovember2021Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanicalincludingphotocopying,recordingoranyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthecopyrightholder.Pleasedirectallenquiriestothepublishers.Photocredit:Copyright©iStockContentsAcknowledgements4Summary5Introduction71. UrbanclimatevulnerabilitiesintheSouthern11Neighbourhood,andbarrierstoresilience2. Acloserlookaturbanresilienceinthreecities163. BringingtheGreenDealtotheSouthern24Neighbourhood:Anopportunitytostepupcooperationwithcitiesaroundthewater-energy-foodnexusRecommendations2737Bibliography30AbouttheauthorsAcknowledgementsWewouldliketothankthefollowingfortheircontributiontothisreport:SarahArbezofCitesUniesLiban;HajarKhamlichiofMediterraneanYouthClimateNetwork;AbdellatifMahmoudofAssociationFederativedesExpertsetConsultantsdeIaCooperationTechniqueInternationale(AFECTI);MohamedSefiani,MayorofChefchaouen;GladaLahnandChrisAylettoftheEnvironmentandSocietyProgrammeatChathamHouse;AutumnForecast,RichCarterandIanBlenkinsopofSoapbox;andSarahFinch.SummaryCitiesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaarealreadysufferingtheeffectsofclimatechange.Weakurbanregulation,ineffectiveclimatepolicies,limiteddecentralizationandinsufficientempowermentoflocalauthoritiesandcivilsocietyfurtherdecreaseurbanresilience.Futureclimatescenariosandprojectedurbangrowththreatenthestabilityoftheregion;withpotentialnegativeknock-oneffectsonEurope.ThisCASCADESSpotlightStudyexaminesclimatevulnerabilitiesinurbanareasincountriestothesouthoftheEUandthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionandadvocatesforsystemicapproachestoaddressingurbanclimateresiliencebystrengtheningthewater-energy-foodnexus,aswellasotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludeswithrecommendationsonhowtheEuropeanGreenDealcanhelpcitiesintheregionadapttoclimateimpacts,basedonawater-energy-foodnexusapproach.Overthepasttwodecades,theEuropeanCommissionhassteppedupitssupportforurbanclimateactionandresilience.AnincreasingnumberofprogrammesfinancedundertheEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP)Southhaveaddressedurbanclimateresilienceinresponsetotheregion'srapidurbanizationandthehighclimatevulnerabilityofcities.ThenumberofurbandwellersinthewiderMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionisestimatedtoreach527millionin2050,anincreaseof72%comparedto2020.Atthesametime,climateimpacts-includingbothslowonsetchangesandsuddendisasters-areputtingadditionalstressonurbaninfrastructure.Thisstressisaggravatedbyweakurbanregulationsthathavecreatedunsustainabledevelopmenttrendswhichunderminethepotentialbenefitsofurbanizationandadverselyaffecturbanclimateresilience.Theprevalenceofhighlycentralizedadministrativesystemsandincompletedecentralizationreformshamperlocalcapacitybuildinganddecisionmaking,whichareprerequisitesforeffectiveadaptationandresilience.Theconvergenceoftheregion,sharshclimaticnditionswithrapid,unsustainableurbanizationandtheassociatedsocio-economicburdenscanexacerbateexistingpoliticalinstability,conflict-inducedmigrationandpoverty.ThesedevelopmentscouldcascadeintotheEU,alteringsecurity,tradeanddiplomaticrelationswiththeSouthernNeighbourhood.TheEU,sevolvingapproachtoworkingwithlocalauthoritiesonurbaninfrastructureandclimategovernanceisafirststeptowardsaddressingtheregion'sintertwinedurbanandclimatecrises.However,thisapproachisstillintheearlystagesandthereisaneedtoreflectonlessonslearnedandhowurbanspaces,climatesandgovernanceareevolvingintheregion.ThisstudysuggeststhattheEll'soverwhelmingfocusonsupportingcitiesintheregionwithenergyefficiencyandthetransitiontosustainableenergysystemsisnotenoughtostrengthenurbanclimateresilience.IncitiesoftheSouthernNeighbourhood,whichtypicallystrugglewithresourcemanagementandscarcity,climateresiliencewillincreasinglydependonlocalcapacitiestoformulateandimplementnexusapproaches,especiallyinthewater,energyandfoodsectors.Basedoncasestudiesofthreesmallandintermediaryurbanareas,thestudyadvocatesforasystemicapproachtoaddressingurbanclimateresilienceinSouthernNeighbourhoodcities.Consideringtheestablishedeffectivenessofapplyingawater-energy-foodnexusapproachtoimprovingclimateresilience,thepaperstressestheneedforlocalgovernmentstoexplorenexusopportunitiesbetweenthewater,energyandfoodsectorsinordertoachieveresilientandsustainableurbanism,whilealsohighlightingotherenablingfactorssuchasdecentralization.ItconcludesbyexploringhowfutureexternalactionaroundtheEuropeanGreenDealanditsambitionsforsystemictransformationcouldbenefitfromsteppingupcooperationwithcitiesintheSouthernNeighbourhoodarou