布鲁金斯学会-2022财年美国军队：海军（英）-38正式版.docx

NOVEMBER2021U.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022NavyMarkF.CancianThispaperispartofU.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022.ThereisbipartisansupporttoexpandtheNavy,butlimitedbudgetsandearlyretirements-i4divcstingtoinvcsf,一makeachievingthatgoaldifficult.TheBidcnadministration'semergingfleetplanincorporatessmallershipsandlargenumbersofunmannedsystems,asproposedbymanystrategists,buthighcosts,productionlimitations,andcongressionaloppositionmaypreventfullimplementation.KEYTAKEAWAYSInFY2022,fleetsizestaysaboutthesame,at296ships.Previouslyorderedshipsarriveinlargenumbers,buttheNavyretires15ships,10early.Navyactive-dutypersonneldecreaseby1,600to346,200.,ShipnumbersmattertotheNavybecauseofhighday-to-daydemandsforitsforcesforcrisisresponse,alliedandpartnerengagement,conventionaldeterrence,andongoingregionalconflicts.Thefuturefleetarchitecture-itssizeandcomposition-remainsaworkinprogress.TheTrumpadministration's355-shipgoalwasdeemedinfeasiblebecauseofitshighcostandoutmodedoperationalconcepts.Attheendofitsterm,theTrumpadministrationarticulatedanewvisionincorporatingunmannedsystemsanddistributedcapabilities.TheBidenadministrationpublishedasimilararchitecture,butsmallerandwithrangesforshipnumbers.Costisaproblemwithallofthesenotionalarchitecturesbecausetheyrequirelargefundingincreaseswhichmaynotoccur.Nevertheless,someinsightsareemerging:Carriers:Recentforcestructureproposalshaveimpliedareductioninthenumberofcarriers.However,contractualcommitmentsandpoliticalconstraintsmayhavelockedtheNavyintothepresentcarrierforceformanyyearsregardlessofstrategicconsiderations.Smallcarriersseemtoberecedingintothebackgroundonceagain.CSIS,LargeSurfaceCombatants:Futurearchitecturesenvisiondeepcutstothisfleet,implyingproductioncutbacksandmanyearlyretirements.However,industrialbaseandstrategicconcernsaboutshrinkingfleetsizewillclashwiththenewgoals.CFNTFRFURSTRATFGlcINTERNATIONALSTUDIES SmallSurfaceCombatants:Allthefuturefleetarchitecturesshowanincrease,theonlyquestionbeinghowmuchofanincreaseandhowfast. AmphibiousShips:Newamphibiousconceptsandtheintroductionofasmallamphibiousshipimplyreductionsinthenumberoflargeamphibiousships.However,aswiththelargesurfacecombatants,industrialbaseinterestswillclashwiththenewandlowergoals. AttackSubmarines:Allfuturearchitecturesenvisionanincreaseinthesizeoftheattacksubmarinefleet.However,slowproductioninthe1990sandproductioncapacitylimitstodaywilllimitfleetsizeuntilthe2040s. BallisticMissileSubmarines:TheColumbia-classballisticmissilesubmarineprogram,theNavy,shighest-priorityprogram,remainsonscheduleand(generally)attargetcostbutwithsomerisk.AnyprogramdelaywoulddisrupttheU.S.nucleardeterrent,whileanycostincreasewoulddisrupteveryothershipbuildingprogram. UnmannedSurfaceandUnderseaVessels:ThesefigureprominentlyinNavyarchitectures,butthesystemsremainexperimentalandnoneofthelargerprogramshaveaproductionplan.TheFY2022budgetseemstoentailapauseindevelopment.Navalaviationisgenerallyingoodshape,withstableinventoriesandacceptableaveragefleetages.However,itremainsfocusedonmannedplatforms.EndStrengthinFY2022Table1:NavyEndStrength-Active,Reserve,andCiviliansActiveNavyEndStrengthNavyReserveEndStrengthCivilianFull-timeEquivalentsFY2021Enacted347,80058,800199,051FY2022Request346,20058,300200,192ChangefromFY2020-1,600-500+1,141Source:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),ActiveEndStrengthdatainFigure7.2,ReserveEndStrengthdatainFigure7.3,CiviliandatainFigure7.10(includesdirectandindirecthiresbutexcludesMarineCorpscivilians),httpsy/www.secnav.Navy.mil/fma/fmb/Documents/22pres./Highlights_Book.pdf.Navypersonnellevelshavebeenonarollercoaster,reachingapost-ColdWarhighof383,000inFY2002andalowof318,000inFY2012.Thenumberhascreptbackup,buttheNavyisstillfarbelowitspre-9/11size.However,thenumberofsailorstracksroughlytothenumberofshipsinthefleet(seeFigure1).Figure1:NavyActive-DutyPersonnel,1999-2022400380360340320300SSoSSSSSM u><ooo>ocMActual-FY2022BudgetSource:OfficeoftheUnderSecretaryofDefense(Comptroller).NationalDefenseBudgetEstimatesforFY2022(Washington.DC:DepartmentofDefense,August2021),Table7-5:DepartmentofDefenseManpower,258-60,httpsmptroller.defense.govPortals45Documentsdefbudget/FY2022/FY22_Green_Book.pdf.TheNavyprojectsthatactive-dutyendstrengthwilldeclineslightlyinFY2022to346,200.ThisreflectstheNavy'snear-termplantoretireoldershipswithlargecrews.AfewNavypersonnelwilltransfertotheSpaceForceinFY2022,butmajordecisionsherelieinthefuture.TheFY2020andFY2021projectionshadshowncontinuedpersonnelgrowth.Figure2:NavyReservePersonnel,1989-2022160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,00019891990199319961999200220052008201120142017202020212022FY 2021 BudgetNavyReserveEndStrengthSource:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),Figure7.3,https7vww.secnav