DDP-深度脱碳的政策教训-在大型新兴经济体（英）-2021.11-86正式版.docx

0DDECARBONlZATlOh_DAYXWAVCPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesBrazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfricaAninternationalreportcoordinatedbytheDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)InitiativeNOVEMBER2021IDDRICopyright2021IDDRITheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRelations(IDDRI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRscopyrightedmaterialsarenotformmercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic).Unlessexpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRsboard.CitationDDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Paris.Thereportisavailableonline:https:ddpinitiative.org/CategOrV/publication/ContactHenriWaisman,heni.waismaniddri.oraFinancialsupportfromThereportPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesisfinanciallysupportedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)oftheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,NatureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)aspartoftheClimateActionAfterParisproject(nr.18_l_326).Production:IDDRI.Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.1.ayout:IvanPharabod.POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesIntroduction3Brazil:5Introduction5Part 1:Scenarioresults7Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons18Annex23India:25Introduction25Part 1:Scenarioresults27Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons32Indonesia:39Part 1:Scenarioresults40Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons51SouthAfrica:55Introduction55Part 1:Scenarioresults56Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons62Thisreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindependentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.IntroductionMartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip1HenriWaisman.Theworldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagestohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2andtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1,5)and2075(for2).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthisscaleofemissionreductions,thescientificassessmentconcludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintechnologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutionalandpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypackagesandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbyeffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworknditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountryntext.Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeenlargelyexploredfromatechno-economicperspective,resultinginviablesetsoflong-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialstandthat,usually,thesetransformationscanhaveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbenefitswhenexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarbonisationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteactionhighlightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnotonlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomayloseandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economiccostsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.TheDDPmmunitybehindthisreporthascommittedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-enomicdeepdecarbonisationtransformationsarecontextualizedinthediver