BIS-真正的稳定币会站起来吗？-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

OBISBISPapersNo141Willtherealstablecoinpleasestandup?byAnnekeKosse,MarcGlowka,IlariaMatteiandTaraRiceMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentNovember2023JELclassification:E42fE58,G23,G28,033.Keywords:cryptoassets,stablecoins,digitalinnovation,financialstability,paymentsystems.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(©BankforInternationalSettlements2023.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1682-7651(online)ISBN978-92-9259-705-4(online)Willtherealstablecoinpleasestandup?1ByAnnekeKosse,MarcGlowka,IlariaMatteiandTaraRiceAbstractThispaperprovidesanoverviewoftheevolutionofthestablecoinmarketoverthepastdecadeandexamineswhetherstablecoinshavestayedtruetotheirnameintermsofbeing“stable”.Byclassifyingstablecoinsintofourdistincttypes,weshowthat,whilestablecoinsbackedbyfiatcurrency,commoditiesorothercryptoassetshavegenerallybeenlessvolatilethantraditionalcryptoassets,notoneofthemhasbeenabletomaintainparitywithitspegatalltimes.Thisisirrespectiveofacoin,ssizeortypeofbacking.Moreover,thereiscurrentlynoguaranteethatstablecoinissuerscouldredeemusers*stablecoinsinfullandondemand.Forthesereasons,thestablecoinsincirculationtodaydonotmeetthekeycriteriaforbeingasafestoreofvalueandatrustworthymeansofpaymentintherealeconomy.Theanalysisinthispaperalsohighlightssomesignificantdatagaps.Moredataarerequiredtobetterunderstandtheusesandusersofstablecoins.Withoutsuchdata,itisdifficulttoascertaintherisksofstablecoinstothesmoothfunctioningofpaymentsystemsandfinancialstabilitymorebroadly.JELclassification:E42,E58,G23,G28,033.Keywords:cryptoassets,stablecoins,digitalinnovation,financialstability,paymentsystems.WethankIhakiAldasoro,AlbertoDiIorioandPeterWiertsfortheirvaluablecommentsandAnamariaIllesforexcellentresearchassistance.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheBIS.IntroductionCryptoassetshaveexperiencedstronggrowthoverthepastdecadeandtheirtechnologyisseenasaninnovationinbankingandpayments. See for example Arner et al (2020) and IMF (2023a).Cryptoassetsaredigitalassetsissuedbytheprivatesectorthatdependprimarilyoncryptographyanddistributedledgerorsimilartechnology.SeeFSB (2020).Theyhavehistoricallybeenmarketedasnewformsofmoneythatcanbeusedtodirectlysendpaymentsbetweenuserswithoutgoingthroughafinancialinstitution.Whilethefirstknowncryptoassetwascreatedinthe1980sfSee https:SCeWeb.sce.uhcl.edu/yang/teaching/csci5234WebSecurityFaS2011/Chaum-blind-SignatUreS.PDF.theydidnotcapturethegeneralpublic,sattentionuntilafewyearsafterBitcoinwasintroducedin2009.Thepurportedbenefitsofcryptoassetshaveyettoberealised:theirpricevolatilitymadethempopularforspeculationorillicitactivities,ratherthanasameansofmakingpayments.See G7 (2019).Bitcoin,likesomeothercryptoassets,hasbeensusceptibletoflashcrashes,orsuddensteeppricedeclines.SeeFSB (2018).Thus,ascryptoassetpricesareapttofluctuateconstantlyandabruptly,theconceptofastablecoinwascreated.Stablecoinsareasubcategoryofcryptoassetsthataim(orclaim)tomaintainastablevaluerelativetoaspecifiedpeg.SeeFSB (2020).OneofthefirstwasTether,in2014.Withinadecadeofthefirststablecoinlaunch,thenumberofwactive,zstablecoins,iethosehavingapositivemarketcapitalisation,grewtoabove60,withTether,USDCoinandBinanceUSDbeingthemostprominentonestodate.Giventheirclaimtoprovideastablealternativetoothercryptoassets,stablecoinshaveagreaterpotentialtobecomeawidelyusedmethodofpayment,storeofvalueandunitofaccount.Yet,despitethelaudedbenefits,stablecoinshaveexperiencedsignificantturbulence,especiallyin2022andearly2023.InthefirsthalfofMay2022,thecryptoecosystemwasshakenupbythecrashofvariouscryptoassets,includingTerra,sstablecoinTerraUSD,thethirdlargeststablecoinatthetime.Afewmonthslater,inNovember,thecentralisedcryptoexchangeFTXfiledforbankruptcyandMarch2023sawthecollapseofSiliconValleyBank,alenderandcustodiantomanycryptoserviceproviders.Theseeventshadadiscernibleimpactonthecryptoassetmarket,andtheybroughtthegrowthofthestablecoinmarkettoahalt.Thesedevelopmentshaveaddedurgencytoauthorities,effortstoaddressthepotentialrisksposedbystablecoins,asdistinctfromthosepresentedbyothertypesofcryptoasset. In July 2022, the Bank for International Settlements' Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) published guidance on the application of the Principles for financial market infrastructures (PFMIs) to stablecoins that are widely used for payments. In October 2022, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) published a proposed framework for the international regulation of cryptoasset activities, and in December, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) issued a prudential standard for the treatment of banks' exposures to cryptoassets.Inaddition,centralbankshavesteppeduptheirmonitoringworktofurtherunderstandtheimplicationsofstablecoinsandsomecentralbank