CBRE-政府或公司债券收益率是英国房地产定价的更好基准吗？（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告20230.docx

CBREVIEWPOINTWe explore whether index- linked Government bond oc BBB corporate bond yields are more useful than nominal Government bond yields for analysing prime real estate pricingCBRE RESEARCH DECEMBER 2023IntelligentInvestmentAreGovernmentorcorporatebondyieldsabetterbenchmarkforUKrealestatepricing?Prime real estate yields rose in the last 18 months, but SDreadS over nominal and red G vlds r,r什u.,.lKeytakeaways-Primerealestateyieldsroseinthelast18monthstoreflectthec11oedinterestrateenvironmentbutthescreedbetweenIXMneyieldsand10-yearGove<nmen(bondyieldsremainslightcomparedwiththelastdecadeCurrent ocin miaM IOOk unfavourable based on these ComDariSOg but history shows the DoeAion can change OUiCkN-Smalls(xedsovernominalGovernmentbondyieldswereobserveddurmgtheGlobalFinancialCrisisof27-0.buttheyWefealsoConlmonDteCebeforethisWrthtacetreturnsforrealestatemetIhrouahacombnadonofinitialInCOmeandcashAoworowth-index-linkedGovernmentbondsareabetterbenchmarkforthefkreeratewhenanaysinorealestate,becausecashtowrwthi$tearltobothtvoeso(investmentTheSDfeddbetweencrimeyieldsandIOVeari11(texrlnjedCbeenconsistentlypositivethroughtime,dithouohitisnownarrowerthanmrecentveers-CorDaatebondyieldshavealsoshownaclo$6rcocresporfencewithrealestateyieldssincetheseinvestments,likerealestate,offe<artskPfefniUmrelativetoGovernmentbondsTheyieldsforB88UKC(XD(XatebondshaverisenaboveDCimerealestateyields.-CurrentrealMatePnClnQrmghtlookUnteVoUrebIebttedontheseConIPenSOns.butMtOfVshowsthatthepositioncanchangeQUlCktY.andpressuresonrealestatewilleaseifkx>terminterestratesstartfllmnreflectionofadclmnUKinflationrateandanendtotheraterts11cycleHave spreads been more consistent bet ween real estate yields and these oher measures, and do such comparisons suggest that a tighter spread over nominalGovernment bond yields could be sustained Soingforward?IntroductionTheUKhasseenasustainedriseinbothshort-termadlong-terminterestratesoverthelasttwoveariThisfollowedadecadeinwhichtheBdnkofEnglandbaseratewasbelow1%,borrowingcostsweretYDtcallvvervlow.andGovernmentbondyieldswerealsoVCrVlow.supportedM9(XoQrammeofquantitativeeasing.Overthatsamedecade,awidemarginexitedbetweenrealestateyieldsandGovernmentbondViekKHence,whatEiahtbetheImDlicationSforUKrealestateDfiCinafromrecentrisesinGovernmentandcorporatebondyw(Kandhowfardorealestateyieldshavetorisetoreflectthechangedfinancialenvironment?TighterspreadsbetweenUKrealestateVieMSandnominalGovernmentbondyieldshavebeenobservedintheoastbutthesemhthaveresultedfromdifferentinvestorexpectationsaboutcashflowgrowthordifferencesintheriskorem<umreouiredforrealestateinvestmentWeexploresomeoftheadvantagesandChaItefKW5ofCOnWinQrealestateyieldsagainstindex-linkedGovernnwntbondyields,andCorooratebondyieldsasMtefnMeStonominalGovernmentbonds.Havespreadsbeenmoreconsistentbetweenrealestateyieldsandtheseothermeasures,anddosuchcomwrisonsSUQgeStthalatighterspreadovernominalGovernmentbondyieldscouldbesustainedQOinaforward?NominalGiltyieldsTargetreturnratesforprimerealestateives(wntsshouldreflecttherisk-freerateofreturn,plusapremiumforbearingtherisksassociatedwithm!estate,butinvestorsdonotneedtoreceivetheirtargetreturnratefromcurrentinco<neifthefuturecashflowsfromr«alestateinvestmentsareexpectedtorise.Therefore,theyieldtheyreceiveinitiallycanbeowfthantheirtargetrate.Thismeansthatyieldswillbenftuencednotonvbvrkreeratesandriskpremiums,butalsobygrowthexpectations.ThemostcommonproxyforariskreerateinanalysisofUKComCnefCiaIrealestateisthere<>emo<ionyieldfornominalGovernmentbonds(orGilUlIoyeMGiftsareoftenused.OWmtotheSimilaritvbetweenthe*lengthandtheholdingperiodsusedGmanyreelestateassetvaluationslyerGittsarenottheoreticallyrtskfree,buttheyarearetotivetyrisk-freealternativetoinvestingincomercreelestate.Figure1谓UstNteStheyieldforK>verGltsaoaistanaHPrODertVprimeyieldoverthelast35veers.TheMpropertyyieldisconstructedasacompositeofprimeyieldsrecordedbyCBREforthehighstreetretail,office,andindustrialsectorsoftheUKrealestatemarket.ThecomparisonshowsthatthespreadbetweenrealestateyieldsandIOyearno<nnalGiKyieldshasvariedalotovertime.Theaveragespreadsince2013hasbeen25ibobutwasonly86bosinthedecadeDCiortothis,whitetherewereperiodsMthe198OSand19905whenthe10-yeMGtttyieldwasabovetheprimerealestateyield.Moreover,nocallmovementsinnominalGityieldsleadtochangesinrealestateVieidWThiSt$becausesomefactorsthatcauseGItyieldstoriseOrfNLsuchchangingexpectationsforinflation,mightproduceadifferentreactioninrealestateVieid$Forexample.HhiQhefinflationwasexpectedtooenefatehighercashflowgrowth,thiswouldcounteractriseinthensk-frcorateHence,thelimitationsofthiscomparisonarethatitomitsconsiderationofhowviewsaboutriskorgrowtharechanging.ThisisespeciallyrelevantforunderstandingrecentChanQeSinthespreadbetweenrealestateYieldsandnominalGittyie