亚开行-加强基础开启老挝人民民主共和国的绿色金融（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点报告20.docx

NO.278DECEMBER2023AdbbriefsKEY POINTS The LaoPeoples Democratic Republic has unique comparative advantages in green growth, which are incorporated into its social and economic planning framework, but not yet embedded in the financial sector and public finance management policies. Macroeconomic pressures arising from unsustainable public debt and a weak Lao kip make the country vulnerable to shocks, including from volatility in commodity prices and changes in rainfall patterns, with climate change posing further risks to macroeconomic and financial sector stability. To support progress on its Nationally Determined Contributions to achieve the Paris Agreement objectives by 2030, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals, the Lao People,s Democratic Republic needs to address ics debt sustainability challenges, including constraints relating to institutional and technical capacities and regulatory gaps, to improve its creditworthiness for increasing access to domestic and international green finance.Emma R. AllenSenior Country Economist Lao PDR Resident Mission ADBStrengtheningFoundationstoUnlockGreenFinanceintheLaoPeople,sDemocraticRepublicDavidBolandSDGFinancingSpecialist(Consultant)1.aoPDRResidentMissionAsianDevelopmentBankFrankN.ThomasSDGImplementationandFinancingSpecialist(Consultant)Strategy,Policy,andPartnershipsDepartmentADBINTRODUCTIONThisAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)briefprovidesasnapshotofcurrenteffortstopursueagreenergrowthpathintheLaoPeople'sDemocraticRepublic(LaoPDR),tomitigatethefinancialimpactsthatareanticipatedunderprojectedscenariosofclimatechangeandnaturalresourcedegradation,andthechallengesthatthecountryfacesinaccessingfinancetohelpaverttheserisks.Itdescribeschallengestopromotingdevelopmentofagreenfinancialsector,andhowtomitigaterisksandaddressconstraints.ItstressestheimportanceOfaddreSSingdebtsustainabilitychallengestosupportprogressontheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)targetsandthecountry'snationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)toachievetheobjectivesoftheParisAgreementby2030.CHALLENGESInitsNinthNationalSocioeconomicDevelopmentPlan,2021-2025,theGovernmentoftheLaoPDRtargetskeygoalsforthecountrythatincludeenhancingenvironmentalprotectionandreducingdisasterriskswhilealsogrowingtheeconomyandimprovingNote: ADB recognizes *'Hong Kong" as Hong Kong. China; and "Vietnam" as Viet Nam. In this publication. "$(* refers to United Sutes dollars.ADBISBN978-92-9270-513-8(print)ISBN978-92-9270-514-5(electronic)ISSN2071-7202(print)ISSN2218-2675(electronic)PublicationStockNo.BRF230574-2DOI:httpdx.doi.orgl0.22617BRF230574-2livelihoodsandwell-being.Thecountry,sannualeconomicgrowthwashigh,averaging8%inthedecadeto2016,butthepandemic,vulnerabilitytoclimateandexternalshocks,andworseningmacroeconomicimbalances-notablysteepcurrencydepreciation,highinflation,andrisingpublicdebt-moderatedaveragegrowthfrom2017onward., Asian Development Bank. 2023. Mjan DeVeIOPment OUHOOk (ADO) SePtember 2023. Manila.Itsgrowthhasbeennarrow,drivenprimarilybyexport-oriented,capital-intensiveforeigninvestmentinnaturalresources,largelyhydropowerandmining,andmorerecentlyintransportThegrowthslowdowninrecentyearsnarrowedfiscalspace,resultinginincreasedvulnerabilitytoarangeofeconomic,climate,environmental,andhealthshocks.MacroeconomicpressuresarisingfromunsustainablepublicdebtandaweakLaokipmakethecountryvulnerabletoshocks,includingfromvolatilityincommoditypricesandchangesinrainfallpatterns,withclimatechangeposingfurtherrisks.Forexample,withtheonsetofElNinoweatherdisturbancesin2023,lectriciteduLaosGenerationPublicCompany(EDL-Gen)isatriskofsufferingrevenuelosseslinkedtolowerwaterinflowinitsbasinsforhydropower.InAugust2022,heavyrainshitthecountryfollowedbyatropicalstormthatcausedwidespreadfloodsandresultedinthelimitedavailabilityofkeyfarminputs.In2020,halfofallfarmersexperienceddisastersdrought,flood,animaldisease,pestinfestations-whichreducedcapacitytogenerateincomeby20%ormoreforthoseaffected.In2018,LaoPDRsuffereditsmostcostlyfloodsinadecade,withapost-disasterneedsassessmentestimatingtotaldamagesof$371.5million,equivalentto2.1%oftheGDP,andrecoveryneedsestimatedat$520million.TheLaoPDRishighlyvulnerabletodisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards,withannualexpectedlossesforfloodeventsashighas3.6%ofGDP,makingsystematicriskreductioncritical., Government of the Lao PDR. 2018. POSt-DiSaSterNeedSASSeSSment: 2018 FlOC)ds, Lao PDR. Vientiane.Furthermore,economicestimatesofenvironmentalandnaturalresourcedegradationexceed$800millionperannum., World Bank. 2021. La。PDR: the Health, EnVirOnment. and SUStainabie EConomiC ReCOVerV Nexus, Washington DC. Note: GDP in current United States dollars was $ 15 billion in 2022. World Bank. 2023. Maao PoVeHy Ou"。:for EaSt Asia and t>e Pacific. Washington DC.Duetohighvulnerabilities,economicfoundationsneedtobestrengthenedinordertounlockopportunitiesforgrowingthegreenfinancesectorandscalingupinvestmentsinfloodriskmanage