亚开行-CAREC地区的铁路运输走廊：长期供应链弹性和短期冲击（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_.docx

/ADBInstitute.ADBIWorkingPaperSeriesRAILTRANSPORTCORRIDORSINTHECARECREGION:LONG-TERMSUPPLYCHAINRESILIENCEANDSHORT-TERMSHOCKSRichardPomfretNo.1422December2023AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteRichardPomfretisanAdjunctProfessorofInternationalEconomics,TheJohnsHopkinsUniversitySAISEurope,Bologna,ItalyandProfessorofEconomicsEmeritus,UniversityofAdelaide,Australia.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperaretheviewsoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofADBI5ADB1itsBoardofDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.ADBIdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispaperandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequencesoftheiruse.TerminologyusedmaynotnecessarilybeconsistentwithADBofficialterms.Discussionpapersaresubjecttoformalrevisionandcorrectionbeforetheyarefinalizedandconsideredpublished.TheWorkingPaperseriesisacontinuationoftheformerlynamedDiscussionPaperseries;thenumberingofthepaperscontinuedwithoutinterruptionorchange.ADBsworkingpapersreflectinitialideasonatopicandarepostedonlinefordiscussion.Someworkingpapersmaydevelopintootherformsofpublication.TheAsianDevelopmentBankrefersto“China”asthePeople'sRepublicofChinaandto"Korea”astheRepublicofKorea.Suggestedcitation:Pomfret,R.2023.RailTransportCorridorsintheCARECRegion:Long-TermSupplyChainResilienceandShort-TermShocks.ADBIWorkingPaper1422.Tokyo:AsianDevelopmentBankInstitute.Available:Pleasecontacttheauthorsforinformationaboutthispaper.Email:richard.pomfretadelaide.edu.auThispaperdrawsonarelatedpaper,ConnectingEurasianSupplyChains:TheImpactofCOVID-19andtheRussia-UkraineWarontheEU-ChinaRailLandbridge,whichwaspresentedattheAmericanEconomicAssociationannualmeetingsinNewOrleans6-8January2023.Iamgratefultothediscussant,RadkhaMeneshova,attheADBIEastWestLogisticsForum'TransportCorridorsintheCARECRegionwon26-27September2023andtotwoanonymousrefereesforhelpfulcomments.AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteKasumigasekiBuilding,8thFloor3-2-5Kasumigaseki,Chiyoda-kuTokyo100-6008,JapanTel:+81-3-3593-5500Fax:+81-3-3593-5571URL:www.adbi.orgE-mail:infoadbi.org©2023AsianDevelopmentBankInstituteAbstractInternationalsupplychainsaredependentoneaseofcrossingbordersandefficientconnectivityintermsofprice,speed,andreliability.InitiallyrespondingtodemandfromautomobileandelectronicsfirmstoconnecttheirEuropeanandChinesesupplychainswithfasterandmorereliablefreightservicesthanmaritimeshipping,theEurasianrailtransportcorridorwasestablishedinthe201Os.TherailLandbridgewasresilientthroughdeterioratingEU-RussianFederationrelationsafter2014andthe2020-2021COVID-19epidemic.However,followingtheRussianinvasionofUkraineandinclusionoftheRussianrailcompanyinwesternsanctionsinFebruary2022,trafficgrowthalongthemainLandbridgeroutesstalled.Thispaperanalyzestheresponseofsupplychainmanagersin2022-2023tothesanctions,andtheroleofpublicpolicyincreatingreliablealternativeroutes.DiversificationandstrengtheningofEurasianrailcorridorsbenefitCentralAsiaRegionalEconomicCooperation(CAREC)membersthroughrevenuesfromtransitfees.MoreimportantisthereductionintransportcostsfortradeamongCARECmembersandwithothercountries,whichcansupporteconomicstrategiesaimedateconomicdiversification.Keywords:supplychains,connectivity,Eurasia,LandbridgeJELClassification:F13Contents1. INTRODUCTION12. ESTABLISHMENTANDDEVELOPMENTOFTHELANDBRIDGE,2011-202123. PROMOTINGALTERNATIVESTOTHEMAINLINES44. THERUSSIANINVASIONOFUKRAINEANDEURASIANRAILCONNECTIONS.65. COSTSANDBENEFITSTOCARECMEMBERSOFALTERNATIVEROUTES96. CONCLUSIONS10REFERENCES12APPENDIX:MEASURINGTRAFFICALONGTHELANDBRIDGE141. INTRODUCTIONAmajorfeatureofCAREC,stransportandtradefacilitationworkhasbeentheidentificationofcorridors,alongwhichhardandsoftinfrastructureimprovementscanbecoordinatedtofacilitatetrade.Animportantsteptowardsevidence-basedpolicymakingwastheestablishmentoftheCorridorPerformanceMonitoringandManagementprogram,currentlyrunundertheaegisoftheCARECInstitute,whoseheadlinemeasuresreportspeedalongcorridors,highlightingtheimportanceoftimeaswellascostforfacilitatingsupplychaintrade.Intermsofrapidgrowthintrafficandincreasedspeed,asubsetofcorridorsformingarailLandbridgebetweenthePeople'sRepublicofChina(PRC)andEuropeandinvolvingalmostallCARECmembercountriesstandsout.Internationalsupplychainsaredependentoneaseofcrossingbordersandonefficientconnectivityintermsofprice,speed,andreliability,andefficientsupplychainmanagementreliesonjust-in-timedeliveryandminimizationofinventories,whetherheldatproductionpointsorintransit.NonstoprailservicesbetweenthePRCandEuropewereestablishedinthe2010stomeetdemandfromEuropeancarcompaniessendingcomponentstofactoriesinthePRCandfromelectronicsfirmssendingcomputersandprintersfromthelattertotheirEuropeanmarketingcenters.The intensification of international supply chains during the last four decades has been easier in some parts of the world than others and so-called "global value chains" have been primarily regional value chains, centered on East Asia, Europe, an