剑桥风险研究中心-保险业的发展场景（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesScenarioBestPracticesDEVELOPINGSCENARIOSFORTHEINSURANCEINDUSTRYCentre forRi<k 4tTkn niKrsityof OcambridgiIlKIUC Business SchooltheLIGHTHILLRlSKnetworkReport CitationAcknowledgementsCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesgratefullyacknowledgesLighthillRiskNetworkforsupportingtheresearcheffortssummarisedinthisreport.TheCentreisgratefulfortheexpertiseprovidedbyourresearchteam,collaborators,andsubjectmatterspecialists.AnymisinterpretationinuseoftheadviceProVidedisentirelytheresponsibilityoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,incollaborationwithLighthillRiskNetwork,2020.DevelopingScenariosfortheInsuranceIndustry.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchool.orStrong,K.,Carpenter,0.,Ralph,D.2020.DevelopingScenariosfortheInsuranceIndustry.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchoolandLighthillRiskNetwork.1.ighthillRiskNetworkUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchoolTrumpingtonStreetCambridgeCB21AGUnitedKingdomenquiries.riskjbs.cam.ac.ukWcbsitcandResearchPlatformwwwjbs.cam.ac.uk/riskResearchTeamDrAndrewCoburn,ChiefScientistProfessorDanielRalph,AcademicDirectorSimonRuffle,DirectorofResearch&InnovationDrMichelleTuveson,Chairman&ExecutiveDirectorJamesBourdeau,GeopoliticalRiskResearchOliverCapenter,LeadEmironmentalRiskResearchJenniferCopic,LeadGovernanceRiskResearchDrJenniferDaffron,LeadTechnologjrRiskResearchKenDeng,LeadFinancialRiskResearchTimothyDouglas,RiskModellingTamaraEvan,LeadGeopoliticalRiskResearchTarynHubbard,RiskResearchOliverPearson,RiskMarketsResearchDrAndySkelton,LeadRiskModellingKaylaStrong,LeadScenarioAnalytiCSDrTimothySummers,SeniorDataScientistJayneTooke,CommunicationsandEventsWilliamTurner,DataScience1.M01.01.02TheLeatherMarket11-13WestonStreetLondon,SEi3ERUnitedKingdomlighthillcreideas.orgWebsiteMembersMatthewEagle,ManagingDirector,HeadofGCAnalytics(GuyCarpenter)PremalGohil,HeadofInnovationPartnerships(LibertyMutual)PaulKaye,HeadofActuarialPractice(Aon)ShreeKhare,GroupHeadofCatastropheResearch(Hiscox)TrevorMaynard,HeadofInnovation(Lloyd'sofLondon)AndrewMitchell,HeadofCatastropheModelling(MSAmlin)DelimomaOramas-Dorta5CatastropheRiskAnalyst(GuyCarpenter)CameronRye,ResearchManager(MSAmlin)DavidSingh,HeadofExposureandPortfolioManagement(MSAmlin)KeithSmith,ResearchandDevelopmentManager(Lloyd,sofIXmdon)DickieWhitaker,ChiefExecutiveOfficer(LighthillRiskNetwork)TheviewscontainedinthisreportareentirelythoseoftheresearchteamoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,anddonotimplyanyendorsementoftheseviewsbytheorganisationssupportingtheresearch,orourconsultantsandcollaborators.TheresultsoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesresearchpresentedinthisreportareforinformationpurposesonly.Thisreportisnotintendedtoprovideasufficientbasisonwhichtomakeaninvestmentdecision.TheCentreisnotliableforanylossordamagearisingfromitsuse.AnycommercialusewillrequirealicenseagreementwiththeCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.Copyight©2020byCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesScenarioBestPracticesDEVELOPINGSCENARIOSFORTHEINSURANCEINDUSTRYContentsWIntnction-51.1 TheInsuranceIndustry51.2 WhyUseScenarios?51.3 ReportRationaleandIntendedAudience61.4 AFrameworkforScenarioDevelopment7同Und.tandi,SCenaU)S.82.1 WhatisaScenario?82.2 TypesofScenarios9USin祥CCnnlinU.nsurz.cInd.ry.乃3.1 GeneralScenarioUses153.2 InsuranceUseCasesofScenarios173.3 AllocatingRiskCapital20JShOCBRiSkSnariovelop¾nt:IranceressIing224.1 AChecklistforScenarios224.2 ScenarioDevelopment:aStressTestPerspective234.3 ConsiderationsandConstraints30JSCenjoDe)pme2ase¾dy:B.nessIHCkout.33JFUtUjlPerSP-tivesScena)s.37EG1OUIIII1J8同Refe.ices.401. Introduction1.1 TheInsuranceIndustryTheinsuranceindustrycomprisescompaniesthatprovideriskmanagementbyunderwritingtherisksofindividualentitiesandpoolingthemtospreadtherisk.Aninsurancecontractguaranteesthat,ontheoccurrenceofaspecifieduncertainfutureevent,theinsurerProVideSapanenttotheinsured,andtherebyassumestherisk.Inreturn,theinsured(orpolicyholder)paysapremium,oraregularfee,totheinsurerforprodingthecoverage.Insuranceiscriticalinprovidingfinancialsecuritytopeopleandorganisationsperformingtheirdailyactivitiesandoperations;orundertakingnewandriskyventures.Thereareseveralclassesofinsuranceavailabletoaccommodateadiverserangeofcustomerswithanarrayofrisks,whichareoftencategorisedbytheirassettypeortheentitybeinginsured.Examplesincludepropertyandcasualty,accidentandhealth,orautoinsurance?Inadditiontoofferingtraditionalcoveragesforknownrisks,supportedbycomprehensiveindustryexperienceandunderstandingoftheiroccurrence,insurersmustalsocontinuallyadapttoemerginganduncertainrisks.Today,suchrisks