国际清算银行-金融科技与银行信贷：他们对货币政策有何反应？（英）-2023.12_市场营销策划_重点.docx

BISBISWorkingPapersNo1157Fintechvsbankcredit:Howdotheyreacttomonetarypolicy?byGiulioCornelli,FiorellaDeFiore,LeonardoGambacortaandCristinaManeaMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentDecember2023JELclassification:D22,G31zR30Keywords:fintechcredit,monetarypolicy,PVAR,collateralchannelBISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.ThepapersareonSUtyeCtSoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org).©BankforInternationalSettlements2023.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1020-0959(print)ISSN1682-7678(online)Fintechvsbankcredit:howdotheyreacttomonetarypolicy?GiulioCorneIIi,FiorellaDeFiore,LeonardoGambacortaandCristinaManea*AbstractFintechcredit,whichincludespeer-to-peerandmarketplacelendingaswellaslendingfacilitatedbymajortechnologyfirms,iswitnessingrapidgrowthworldwide.However,itsresponsivenesstomonetarypolicyshiftsremainslargelyunexplored.Thisstudyemploysanovelcreditdatasetspanning19countriesfrom2005to2020andconductsaPVARanalysistoshedsomelightonthedifferentreactionoffintechandbankcredittochangesinpolicyrates.Themainresultisthatfintechcreditshowsalower(evennon-significant)sensitivitytomonetarypolicyshocksincomparisontotraditionalbankcredit.Giventhestillmarginal-althoughfastgrowing-macroeconomicsignificanceoffintechcredit,itscontributioninexplainingthevariabilityofrealGDPislessthan2%,againstaroundonequarterforbankcredit.JELCodes:D22,G31,R30.Keywords:fintechcredit,monetarypolicy,PVAR,collateralchannel.GiulioCornelli(email:giulio.cornellibis.org)iswiththeBankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)andtheUniversityofZurich(UZH).Correspondingauthor.FiorellaDeFiore(email:fiorella.defiorebis.org)andLeonardoGambacorta(email:Ieonardo.gambacortabis.org)arewiththeBISandresearchfellowsofCEPR.CristinaManea(CriStina.maneabis.org)iswiththeBIS.TheauthorsthankMaxCroce,MarcoJacopoLombardiandoneanonymousrefereeforhelpfulcomments.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,UZHandCEPR.1. IntroductionCreditmarketsareundergoingaprofoundtransformation.Whiletraditionallenderssuchasbanksandcreditunionscontinuetobetheprimarysourceoffinanceinmosteconomies,withcapitalmarketsalsoplayinganimportantroleinsomecases,newintermediarieshavebeguntomaketheirmark.Inparticular,digitallendingmodelssuchaspeer-to-peerandmarketplacelendinghaveseensignificantgrowthinnumerouseconomiesoverthepastdecade(Claessensetal.,2018).Furthermore,inmorerecentyears,severalprominenttechnology-drivencompanies(oftenreferredas,bigtechs/z)haveventuredintocreditmarkets,providingloanstotheirclientseitherdirectlyorinpartnershipwithfinancialinstitutions(Frostetal.2019).Thesenewtypesofcredit,enabledbyonlineplatformsandbigdataforassessingcreditworthinessarecommonlytermed,fintechcredit". Fintech credit encompasses various innovative credit forms. This includes digital lending models such as peer- to-peer (P2P)marketplace lending and invoice trading, all facilitated by online platforms rather than traditional banks or lending institutions. Another notable form is wbig tech credit1', which is credit extended either directly or in partnership with financial institutions by large firms primarily engaged in the technology sector. For simplicity in this paper we group these two alternative finance forms together, referring to both collectively as wfintech credit".Fintechcreditiswitnessingrapidglobalexpansion,achievingmacroeconomicsignificanceinmanycountriesincludingChina,Korea,Malaysia,andKenyawhereitreachesupto5%oftotalcredit(Cornellietal.r2023).Inlightofthistrend,itbecomesessentialtoinvestigatehowfintechcreditrespondstomonetarypolicyandtoidentifythekeydifferencesinitsmonetarytransmissionmechanismrelativetotraditionalbankcredit. See De Fiore et al (2023) for a model-based analysis of the relative impact of big tech and bank credit on the transmission of monetary policy.Threeprimarydifferencesbetweenfintechandbankcreditcouldinfluencetheirresponsestoamonetarypolicyshock.First,ratherthanrelyingonphysicalcollateraltoaddressagencyissuesbetweenlendersandborrowers,thebusinessmodeloffintechcreditisgroundedindata(Gambacortaetal.,2019).Asaresult,fintechcreditresponsivenesstoassetpricefluctuationstriggeredbyshiftsinmonetarypolicyislower(Gambacortaetal.,2022).Second,fintechplatformsmayoperatewithinregulatoryframeworksdistinctfromthosegoverningtraditionalbanks,enablingthemtoextendcreditundervariedterms.Moreover,thecompetitivedynamicsbetweenfintechplatformsandconventionalbankscanshapecreditofferingsandtheirreactionstomonetarypolicyindifferentways.Astraditionalbankcreditbecomesmoreconstrainedduetomonetarypolicytightening,businessescouldreaddresstheirneedstowardsfintechplatforms(Hasanetal.,2023).Th