芬兰2023年国家报告-英_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_doc.docx

EUROPEANCOMMISSIONBrussels,24.5.2023SWD(2023)626finalCOMMISSIONSTAFFWORKINGDOCUMENT2023CountryReport-FinlandAccompanyingthedocumentRecommendationforaCOUNCILRECOMMENDATIONonthe2023NationalReformProgrammeofFinlandanddeliveringaCouncilopiniononthe2023StabilityProgrammeofFinlandCOM(2023)626finalENENEuropeanCommissionFinland2023CountryReportECONOMICANDEMPLOYMENTSNAPSHOTTheFinnisheconomyslowsdownbeforeanexpectedpick-upinthesecondhalfof2023FollowingaswiftrecoveryaftertheCOVID-19pandemic,theFinnisheconomyenteredatechnicalrecessioninthesecondhalfof2022.AgainstthebackgroundofRussia,swarofaggressionagainstUkraine,realGDPgrowthforthelasttwoquartersoftheyearwasnegative,whichqualifiesasa'technicalrecession*.However,realannualGDPgrewby2.1%in2022(seeAnnex20).Inboth2021and2022,growthwassupportedbydomesticdemand.Lastyear,abuild-upofinventoriesalsonoticeablycontributedtogrowth(seeGraphI.I).Thestartof2023hasbeenmarkedbyrathernegativeeconomicsentimentinindustry,retailtradeandconstruction.Consumerconfidencehasalsobeenlow.Inflationarypressures,higherinterestratesandtighterfinancingconditionsaresettoweighoneconomicperformanceinthenearterm.However,theexternalenvironmentisprojectedtoimprove,andeconomicactivityisexpectedtopickupinthesecondhalfof2023.ExportshaveremainedrelativelyresilientafterthestartofRussia,swarofaggressionagainstUkraine.In2022,theFinnishexportsofgoodstoRussiaaccountedfor2.6%comparedto5.4%in2021.AccordingtotheFinlandChamberofCommerce(l),inNovember2022,only4%ofexportcompanieshadbusinessinRussia,comparedto24%inMay.Afewstudies(2)(3)foundthatlargerFinnishcompanieshadnotbeenseriouslyaffectedbythesuspensionoftheirtraderelationswithRussia.Overall,considerablenominalgrowthofexportstootherEUcountriesandtheUSimpliesthatashareofexportingbusinessessuccessfullyenteredorexpandedtheiractivitiesinothermarkets.Atthesametime,attheendof2022,importsfromRussiawereapproximately80%lowerthanayearbeforeandmostlycomprisednickel.GraphI.I：RealGDPgrowthandcontributionsNet exports Priv. consumption InventoriesMi InvestmentGov. consumption Real GDP (yoy%)Source:EuropeanCommissionInflationspikedin2022,reachingitspeakinthefourthquarter.AnnualHarmonisedIndexofConsumerPrices(HICP)inflationstoodatarecord7.2%comparedto2.1%in2021.Significantjumpsingasandelectricitypricesputannualenergyinflationabove30%andwerethemaindriverbehindtheoverallincreaseinthepricelevel.However,in2022,inflationremainedbelowthatoftheeuroarealevelduetothecountry'slimiteddependencyongasandthecoordinatedwagebargainingsystem.Aswageincreasesagreedfor2023remainbelowtheforecastedHICPinflation,inparticularcoreinflation,realincomesaresettodecline,weighingonconsumerspendingtogetherwiththehigherinterestrates.Increasedpublicspendingandweakergrowthputpressureonpublicfinances.Afterfallingto0.9%ofGDPin2022,duetostrongrevenueperformance,nominalGDPgrowthandthegradualwithdrawalofCOVID-19measures,thegeneralgovernmentdeficitisforecasttoincreaseto2.6%ofGDPin2023andtoremainatthatlevelin2024.TheseprojectionstakeintoaccounttheadditionaldefencespendingannouncedbytheFinnishgovernmentagainstthebackdropofRussia'swarofaggressionagainstUkraine,andthecostofprovidingprotectiontopeoplefleeingUkraineaswellasmeasurestolessentheeffectsofhighenergyprices.Thedebt-to-GDPratioissettorisefrom73.0%in2022to73.9%in2023and76.2%in2024(seeAnnex20).Thelabourmarketperformswell,butstructuralchallengesremainTheFinnishlabourmarketperformedstronglyin2022.Theunemploymentratefellto6.8%in2022comparedto7.6%in2020and2021.Thisisahistoricallylowrategiventhehighrateofjoblessnessfollowingthe2007-2008financialcrisis:onlyin2019wasunemploymentsomewhatlower,beforetheCOVID-19crisis.Atthesametime,theoverallnumberofavailablejobsremainedhigh:althoughthenumberofvacanciesdeclinedinthesecondhalfof2022,thispointstosignificantskillsmismatchesandlabourshortagesinsomesectors(seeSection'Furtherprioritiesahead,andAnnex14).Theemploymentratestoodat78.6%inthelastquarterof2022(seeGraph1.2).FinlandcontinuestoperformwellacrossmostdimensionsoftheSocialScoreboardaccompanyingtheEuropeanPillarofSocialRights.In2022,adultparticipationinlearningoverthepast4weekswashighat25.2%,while,accordingtothelatestavailabledatafor2021,79%ofthepopulationaged16-74hadbasicorabovebasicdigitalskills,oneofthehighestratesintheEU(seealsoAnnex10).Thecountryalsocontinuestoperformstronglyonmostsocialindicators(seeAnnex14).However,self-reportedunmetneedsformedicalcareremainwellabovetheEUaverage(4.4%vs2%in2021).Graph1.2:Employment,activityandunemployment三Empk>y*nentrate2064(rhs)MActhfItyrate2064(rs)-Unemploymentrate1S74(IKs)-Long-termUnemPIOVmentrate1574(M)-NEETrate15-29(Ihs)Source:Eurostat;LabourForceSurveyDespitefavourablesocialdevelopments,somegroupsinFinlandarestillinaweaklabourmarketposition.Thedisabilityemploymentgap( The difference of the employment rate of persons without disabilities and the employment rate of persons with disabilities.)decreasedto19.0percentagepoints(pps)i