麦肯锡-建筑物脱碳的新方法可以降低排放并有利可图（英）_市场营销策划_重点报告202301202_d.docx

November2023McKhiseyQuarterlyAnewwaytodecarbonizebuildingscanloweremissionsprofitablyAnAl-informedapproachmakesitfaster,easier,andcheapertodecarbonizerealestate.Here,show.ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyBrodieBoland,DanielCramer,AlastairGreen,DaryaGuettler,FockoImhorst,andMaritaWinSlade,representingviewsfromMcKinsey,RealEstatePractice.Realestatecompaniesareincreasinglyacceptingtheimperativetodecarbonizebuildings,buttheyfrequentlyfindthetaskdifficult,laborious,andexpensive.Ownerswithportfoliosofmanyuniquebuildingsoftenhavenocentralizedinventorythatindicatestheconditionsinsideorthetypesofequipmenttheycontain.Whafsmore,physicalenergyauditsandbuilding-by-buildingnet-zeroplansarelengthy,costly,andenjoynobenefitsofscale.Duetotheselimitations,thetraditionalapproachtodecarbonizationhascreatedawidespreadimpressionthatdecarbonizingbuildingsissignificantlyunprofitable.Butthankstoimprovementsinthequantityandqualityofdataandanalyticmethods,thereisabetterapproach.Itisnowpossibletouseacombinationofdatafromsatellites,geospatialanalytics,regulations,laborandequipmentcosts,buildingcharacteristics,energy,andothersourcestorapidlycreateahigh-fidelitypictureofthecurrentstateofanindividualbuildingwithouteversteppingfootinside.Byapplyingmachinelearning,Al,andphysics-basedmodeling,portfolioownerscanquicklyidentifybuildingdecarbonizationopportunities.Thisincludesthecurrenttypeandestimatedcapacityofheatingandcoolingsystems,thesite-specificpotentialforsolarorgeothermalpower,andwhereinsulationandefficiencylevelsaresubstandard.Advancedevolutionaryoptimizationalgorithmscanthendeterminetheoptimalsetofsolutionsandsequenceofactionsforeachbuilding-andtheportfolioasawholetoreachnetzeroonagiventimeline.Thesecapabilitiescanquicklygenerateasetoffinanciallyoptimizedplansforeachbuildinginaportfoliobasedonthebuilding/suniquestartingpoint,regulatoryenvironment,leasestructure,andmanyotherfactors.Theseplans-whichcanbegeneratedforafullportfolioinamatterofweeks-canincludeasetoftime-boundactions,associatedcapitalcosts,anddocumentationoftheeffectonemissionsandoperatingcosts.Forlargeportfolios,thisnovelapproachtoreachingnetzerorepresentsamorethan100-foldincreaseinthepaceandscaleofdecarbonizationplanningcomparedwiththetraditionalapproachofconductingenergyauditsandnet-zerostudies.Italsoeliminatestheneedtorelyonvaguebuildingarchetypesorgeneralmarginalabatementcostcurves,whichoftenleadtopoorerplansandhighercosts.Thissystemyieldsspecific,detailed,actionableplanswithfasterabatementandbettereconomics.Bydevelopingthefullpathtonetzero,realestateorganizationscanplanaheadinsteadofreacting.Theycanintegratedecarbonizationcostinsightswhendecidingwhichbuildingstomoveintooracquire.Becausethisnewapproachcanrapidlygenerateaplanforeverybuilding,ownersandoccupierscandecidewheretoinvestlimitedcapitalandcoordinateequipmentprocurement,design,andprojectmanagementtominimizecosts.Additionally,ownerscanaggregatebuilding-levelplansacrosstheportfoliotodevelopcapitalplansandreporting.Building-Ievelplansforenergyefficiencyandelectrificationallowownersandoccupierstoestimateandprocurerequiredvolumesofrenewablepower,increasethepotentialtotakeadvantageofgovernmentincentives,andmakebuildingmanagers'jobseasier.Thisarticlebeginsbyexploringtheimportanceofadoptingamoreefficientwaytodecarbonizebuildings.Next,Wedescribehowthisnewapproachoftenmakesitpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzeroatanetpresentvalue(NPV)thatisneutraltopositive.Forexample,Wehighlightacompanythatrecentlydevelopedanet-zeropathwayplanthat,sprojectedtocostroughly$85millionlessthanatraditional-approachplanwouldhavecost.Finally,wedescribethesevenfeaturesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplan.Decarbonizationeffortsarechallenging,butafaster,moreeconomicalwayofaccomplishingtherealestateindustry,sdecarbonizationgoalsprovidesanopportunitytomeaningfullyaccelerateactionsrequiredtolimitglobalwarming.Buildingowners,operators,andoccupiershaveobligationstodecarbonizeTherealestateindustryaccountsforapproximately40percentofglobalcombustion-relatedemissions,ofwhich28percentagepointscomefrombuildingoperationsand12fromembodiedcarbonthatis,emissionsfrombuildingmaterialsandconstruction(Exhibitl).2022 Global status report for buildings and construction, United Nations Environment Programme, November 9, 2022.Tokeepglobalwarmingwithinapproximately1.5Candtoreachanet-zero-carbonbuildingstockby2050,theIEAestimatesdirectbuildingemissions(suchasfromonsitegasoroilboilers)willneedtobereducedby50percentandindirectemissionsbyExhibit1Thirty-sevenpercentofglobalenergyemissionsarerelatedtobuildings,with28percentagepointsofthatduetobuildingoperations.Global energy and process emissions by source, 2021, %Building operations (direct)Building operations (indirect)OtherindustryTransportationOtherBuilding construction industry Other nstr ction2i8 37Source:UNEP2022GlobalStatusReportforBuildingsandGxistruction60percent(forexample,throughenergyefficiencymeasuresandgriddecarbonization)by2030.2uBuil