世界经济论坛-转变能源需求（英）-2024.1.docx

IncollaborationwithPwCWQRLDECONOMICF(DRUMTransformingEnergyDemandWHITEPAPERJANUARY2024Images:GettyImagesContentsForeword3Executivesummary41 Whytransformingenergydemandmatters52 Thethreeenergydemandlevers113 Businesssolutions-overallapproach134 Businesssolutions-selectedinterventionsforchange15inbuildings,industryandtransport4.1 Industry164.2 Buildings244.3 Transport295 Governmentleadership33Conclusion37Appendix38A1Modellingmethodology38Contributors40Endnotes44DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollat>orativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.January 2024TransformingEnergyDemandForewordAnaBotinExecutiveChairman,TheSantanderGroup;Chair,InternationalBusinessCouncilBobMorrtzGlobalChair,PwC;Member,InternationalBusinessCouncilOlivierSchwabManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumAstheglobalenergysystemundergoesarapidtransformation,leadersacrossallsectorsneedtollaboratetoaelerateanenergytransitionthatcreatespositiveoutcomesforpeople,societyandtheplanet.Theprivatesectorcanplayaleadingroleindrivingthistransformation.Thatiswhyayearago,theInternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC),agroupthattogetherrepresents3%ofglobalenergyuse,decidedtofocusonenergydemand.Thisisanunder-addressedareathatwillallowustoincreaseeconomicoutput,whilereducinggreenhousegasemissions(GHG)anddrivingupglobalaccesstoenergy.Ourresearchshowsthattherearemanytangibleactionsthatallbusinessescantaketodaytoactonenergydemand.Thepotentialofthisdemand-sideactionisextraordinary,offeringashort-term,cost-efficient31%reductionofdemand,sharedacrossalleconomicsectors.Thesegainsaredeliverablenow,atattractivereturns,needingnonewtechnology.SuchconcertedactionwouldunlockgrowthandproductivitywhilegettingtheworldbackontracktomeetthetargetssetsbytheParisAgreement.Atthesametime,itwouldsupportdeliveryofthepledgebyover120countriesatCOP28todoubletheglobalaverageannualrateofenergyefficiencyimprovement.Thesefindingsshouldbeexcitingforallleaders,ingrowthandmaturemarketsalike,andwethankalltheIBCmembersfortheirsupportindrivingthiswork.Ourambitionistogettheworldtoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyitseffortstoreachnetzero.Wehopethispaperwillinspiremanyotherbusinessesandgovernmentstojointhiseffort.Thereisnotimetolose.ExecutivesummaryActionsonenergydemandcanbetakenbyallcompaniesnow,areprofitableandcanaccelerateprogresstowardsclimategoals.Thevalueofactiononenergydemandiscompelling:apossible31%reductioninenergyintensityandupto$2trillioninannualsavingsifmeasuresweretobetakenby2030(seeAppendix,A1:Methodology).Reducingenergyintensity-energyusedperunitofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)-wouldboostgrowthbyenablingpreviouslywastedorover-utilizedenergytoberedirectedtomoreproductiveactivities.Itwouldalsohelpmpaniessavecashandmaintaincompetitiveadvantagewhilereducingemissions.Thispaperoutlinesthevalueofactionsonenergydemandfromtheprivateandpublicsectorsandhowtodeliverthem.Actionsaredoabletoday,atattractivereturnswithexistingtechnology,andsoitisbelievedthisestablishesacompellingcasetoactasmuchonenergydemandassupplyinthejourneytonetzero.Findingawaytoreduceorevenreversethepaceofenergydemandgrowthwhilesupportingeconomicoutputiscritical.By2050,theworld'spopulationwillgrowbytwobillion,andGDPisforecasttodouble.Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomiesneedabundantandlow-costenergytoenablegrowthandmeetdevelopmentgoals.Simultaneously,theworldistargetingsupplydecarbonization.Actingondemandandsupplysimultaneouslyisthebestwaytoachievethesechanges.Actingonenergyconsumptionisdoable,affordableandprofitable.Thisresearchshowsthatallcompaniesandcountriescanuseexistingleverstoreduceenergyintensity.Acrossbuildings,industryandtransport(BIT),InternationalBusinessCouncil(IBC)examplesillustratethattheseactions,wheresupportedbyappropriatepublicpolicy,canenabletheworldtoreduceitsenergyneedsbyapproximatelyathirdwhilefreeingfurthereconomicoutput.Affordabilityisalsoclear,withinterventionspotentiallyfullypaidbackgloballywithinadecade,drivingestimatedannualsavingsintherangeof$2trillion.Threeleverscandeliverthischange.First,t,energysavings"-operationalimprovementinterventionsfundedthroughoperatingexpenditure(OpEx).Resultsaretypicallyimmediatebutoftenoverlookedastheyrequirecoordinatingmanyinterventionsacrossanorganizationandconstantenergycostimprovement."Energyefficiency"poolsmeasuresunderdirectcompanycontrolthatrequirecapitalexpenditure(CapEx).Together,savingsandefficiencieso