麦肯锡-建筑通告：最大限度地减少二氧化碳排放和创造商业机会（英）.docx

In collaboration with McKinsey & CompanyW7ORLD ECONOMIC FQRUMCircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunitiesWHITEPAPER.DECEMBER2023Images:GettyImages,UnsplashContentsForeword3Executivesummary4Introduction51 Transformingtheresourceloopsinthebuiltenvironment61.1 Resourcerecirculation81.2 Resourceefficiencies91.3 Resourceutilization92 Buildingwithcircularmaterials102.1 Concreteandcement132.2 Constructionsteel152.3 Constructionaluminium172.4 Constructionplastics192.5 Flatglass212.6 Gypsum23Conclusion:Drivingthecircularitytransitioninthebuiltenvironment25Appendix:Modellingassumptionsandresultscalculation26Contributors27Endnotes28DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEnomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandndusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollat>orativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2023WorldEnomicForum.Allrightsreserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedOrtransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrerding,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.December 2023CircularityintheBuiltEnvironment:MaximizingCO2AbatementandBusinessOpportunitiesForewordFernando GomezHead, Resource Systems and Resilience - Centre for Nature and Climate, Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic ForumJukkaMaksimainenSeniorPartner,McKinsey&CompanySebastianReiterPartner,McKinsey&CompanyJorgenSandstromHead,TransformingIndustrialEsystems-CentreforEnergyandMaterials,WorldEnomicForumAmultitudeofcomplexglobalchallenges,includinghealthcrises,geopoliticalconflictsandeconomicdifficulties,haveinspiredthenarrativethattheworldhasentereda"newnorma,whereorganizationsmustdealwithcrisesandfocusonresiliencebydefault.Throughoutthisshiftingnormality,whathasnotchangedistheurgentneedtotackleoneofthemostprevalentissuesofthecentury:combatingclimatechangeanditsprofoundimpactontheworld.Thebuiltenvironmentholdsimmensepotentialforpositivechange.Buildingsandconstructionaountforabout26%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions,primarilyduetotheirsubstantialconsumptionofenergyandmaterials.However,thereisanopportunitytotransitionfromcurrentconsumptionandproductionpatternstoamoresustainablecircularapproach.Byreimaginingdesignprocesses,embracingcutting-edgetechnologiesandexploringinnovativebusinessmodels,industryplayerscanunlkgreatervaluefromexistingassets,conservecrucialresourcesandreducewaste.Theurgencyofmakingthisshifttowardsgreatercircularitycannotbeoverstated;eachpassingdaywithoutactionexacerbatesthechallengeshumanityfaces.ThiswhitepaperbytheWorldEnomicForum'sCentreforNatureandClimateandtheCentreforEnergyandMaterials,incollaborationwithMcKinsey,embarksonamprehensiveexplorationofcircularity'spotentialtorevolutionizethebuiltenvironmentandcreateasustainableandresilientfuture.Throughcarefulanalysisofvaluepoolsandabatementpotential,ourresearchservesasacalltoaction,revealingbothenvironmentalgainsandsignificanteconomicrewards.Here,weshareapathtowardsamoresustainableindustrythatcanabateCO2emissionswhileunlockingeconomicvalue.Astheindustrybeginsthistransformativejourneytowardsacircularbuiltenvironment,itiscrucialtorecognizethepivotalroleoflighthouses,whichofferbreakthroughcircularitysolutionsthatdemonstrateenvironmentalimpact,scalabilityandfinancialviability.Thesepioneersbringtogetherindustryleaderstoactivelydriveandacceleratethetransitiontowardscircularity,servingasbeaconsofinspirationandshowcasingproactiveadoptionofcircularpractices.Byembracingcircularity,theynotonlysafeguardtheplanetbutalsounlocksustainableprosperity.WethankallcommunitymembersandForuminitiativeleadersfortheirdedicationandinvaluableinputtowardsthisreport.Wetrustitwilloffervaluableguidanceandperspectivestoleadersinboththepublicandprivatesectorsaswecollaborativelychartthecourseforthebuiltenvironment'sfuture.ExecutivesummaryCircularitycouldabate75%ofembodiedemissionsfromthebuiltenvironmentwhilecreatingsignificanteconomicvalue.Thiswhitepaperquantifiesthepotentialforcarbondioxide(CO2)abatementandpotentialnetvaluegainacrossninecircularityloopsforsixkeybuildingmaterials:cementandconcrete,steel,aluminium,plastics,glassandgypsum.Thecircularityloopsareassessedthroughthreedimensions:recirculationofmaterialsandminerals,renewableandrecoveredenergyandreducingemissionsthroughcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)andcarboncaptureandutilization(CCU).Theresultsshowthatcircularloopsldabate0.5to0.8gigatonnesofCO2(GtCO2)in2030andbetween3.4and4.0GtCO2in2050.Thisaccountsfor13%ofthebuiltenvironment'sembodiedcarbonemissionsin2030butapproaches75%in2050.In2030,recirculationofmaterialsandmineralsandCCS/CCUareeachexpectedtocontributearound40%oftotalabatement,withCCS/CCUincreasingitscontributiontomorethan50%by2050.Circulari